U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00035200 · Arkansas

Frost Dates near Ola, AR

NOAA weather station Nimrod Dam (USC00035200), Arkansas · elevation 480 ft (146 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Ola is the nearest town to the station (6.5 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season233 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Ola, ARSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 22 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 22First frost ~Nov 11Frost season near Ola, ARSpring: a frost after March 2 in 9 years out of 10, after March 22 in half of the years, after April 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 11 in half of the years, before November 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 22First frost ~Nov 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 7October 29
50% (typical)March 22November 11
90% (likely)March 2November 29
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
233 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 8
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 24

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 21 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 9 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 231 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Ola: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 7, 20% April 3, 30% March 30, 40% March 26, 50% March 22, 60% March 17, 70% March 13, 80% March 9, 90% March 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 5, 2022 April 11.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 7Mar 22Mar 22021: April 52022: April 11Fall near Ola: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 29, 20% November 1, 30% November 5, 40% November 7, 50% November 11, 60% November 14, 70% November 18, 80% November 22, 90% November 29. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 19, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 29Nov 11Nov 292022: October 192025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 5incomplete record
2022April 11October 19
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordNovember 10
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 29 is the cautious fall date in the Ola area for finishing the harvest; only a 10 % chance of a light frost has occurred earlier, making it the preferred cut-off for tender crops.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 7, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later. The 50 % date is March 22, indicating an even-odds point for a light frost occurring later in the season. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 8 in spring and November 24 in fall; these mark the median moment a temperature of 28 °F is reached. In fall the 50 % date for light frost is November 11, the median point for a frost occurring earlier.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so it is a more critical threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ola, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Dardanelle, AR — 19 mi; 2 — Alum Fork, AR — 21 mi; 3 — Morrilton, AR — 26 mi; 4 — Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 30 mi; 5 — Subiaco, AR — 36 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Dardanelle, AR — 19 mi12. Alum Fork, AR — 21 mi23. Morrilton, AR — 26 mi34. Blue Mountain Dam, AR — 30 mi45. Subiaco, AR — 36 mi5
  1. Dardanelle, AR 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Alum Fork, AR 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Morrilton, AR 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Blue Mountain Dam, AR 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Subiaco, AR 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.9553, -93.1594.