U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00010583 · Alabama

Frost Dates for Bay Minette, AL

NOAA weather station Bay Minette (USC00010583), Alabama · elevation 271 ft (83 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostFebruary 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season272 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Bay Minette, ALSpring: a frost after February 3 in 9 years out of 10, after February 28 in half of the years, after March 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 7 in 1 year out of 10, before November 25 in half of the years, before December 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 272 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Feb 28First frost ~Nov 25Frost season at Bay Minette, ALSpring: a frost after February 3 in 9 years out of 10, after February 28 in half of the years, after March 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 7 in 1 year out of 10, before November 25 in half of the years, before December 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 272 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Feb 28First frost ~Nov 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 21November 7
50% (typical)February 28November 25
90% (likely)February 3December 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
272 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 12
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 26 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 26 (1 day later). Frost-free season 273 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Bay Minette: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 21, 20% March 15, 30% March 9, 40% March 4, 50% February 28, 60% February 25, 70% February 19, 80% February 13, 90% February 3. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 February 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 21Feb 28Feb 32021: February 212022: March 142023: March 202024: March 192025: February 212026: March 17Fall at Bay Minette: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 7, 20% November 12, 30% November 17, 40% November 21, 50% November 25, 60% November 29, 70% December 3, 80% December 9, 90% December 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 4, 2022 November 14, 2023 November 29, 2024 December 4, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 7Nov 25Dec 202021: January 42022: November 142023: November 292024: December 42025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21January 4
2022March 14November 14
2023March 20November 29
2024March 19December 4
2025February 21November 11
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 272 days between the 50% dates in Bay Minette span the interval where a light frost is less likely than not in either direction; the 50% light-frost dates are February 28 in spring and November 25 in fall. For a gardener these median dates signal the point at which the chance of a frost later (spring) or earlier (fall) reaches fifty percent, providing a reference for planning beyond the period of greatest uncertainty.

A cautious spring plan uses the March 21 date, which carries only a ten-percent chance of a frost later and is the recommended limit for setting out tender crops. In fall the cautious limit is November 7, where there is only a ten-percent chance of a frost earlier, guiding the finish of tender-crop harvests. Hard frost at 28 °F matters more than light frost at 32 °F because it can cause more severe damage to vegetation.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Bay Minette, ALNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Robertsdale, AL — 23 mi; 2 — Fairhope, AL — 24 mi; 3 — Atmore, AL — 29 mi; 4 — Mobile, AL — 30 mi; 5 — Jackson, AL — 45 mi.MSFL25 mi · 40 km1. Robertsdale, AL — 23 mi12. Fairhope, AL — 24 mi23. Atmore, AL — 29 mi34. Mobile, AL — 30 mi45. Jackson, AL — 45 mi5
  1. Robertsdale, AL 23 mi (36 km)
  2. Fairhope, AL 24 mi (39 km)
  3. Atmore, AL 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Mobile, AL 30 mi (49 km)
  5. Jackson, AL 45 mi (73 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.8839, -87.7853.