U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00012813 · Alabama

Frost Dates for Fairhope, AL

NOAA weather station Fairhope 2 NE (USC00012813), Alabama · elevation 23 ft (7 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season253 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Fairhope, ALSpring: a frost after February 20 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after March 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 253 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 17Frost season at Fairhope, ALSpring: a frost after February 20 in 9 years out of 10, after March 10 in half of the years, after March 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 2 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 253 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 10First frost ~Nov 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 30November 2
50% (typical)March 10November 17
90% (likely)February 20December 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
253 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 26
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 8 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 17. Frost-free season 252 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Fairhope: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 30, 20% March 23, 30% March 18, 40% March 14, 50% March 10, 60% March 6, 70% March 1, 80% February 26, 90% February 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 18, 2025 February 21, 2026 February 25.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Mar 30Mar 10Feb 202021: February 212022: March 142023: March 212024: February 182025: February 212026: February 25Fall at Fairhope: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 2, 20% November 6, 30% November 10, 40% November 14, 50% November 17, 60% November 21, 70% November 25, 80% November 30, 90% December 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 3, 2022 November 18, 2023 November 28, 2024 December 4, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 2Nov 17Dec 62021: January 32022: November 182023: November 282024: December 42025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21January 3
2022March 14November 18
2023March 21November 28
2024February 18December 4
2025February 21November 11
2026February 25season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 253 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Fairhope mark the window in which a light frost is less likely than not. For gardeners the 50% date is March 10 and the opposite-season 50% date is November 17, both indicating even odds of a light frost but not defining a frost event. A cautious spring schedule uses the March 30 date, which carries only a 10% chance of a later light frost, while a cautious fall schedule relies on the November 2 date, which has only a 10% chance of an earlier light frost. The 50% hard-frost dates are February 26 and December 1, showing the points at which a 28°F frost is equally likely or unlikely. Hard frosts matter more because temperatures of 28°F can injure plants that survive the milder 32°F light frosts.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Fairhope, ALNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Robertsdale, AL — 11 mi; 2 — Mobile, AL — 23 mi; 3 — Bay Minette, AL — 24 mi; 4 — Atmore, AL — 51 mi; 5 — Brewton, AL — 64 mi.FLMS25 mi · 40 km1. Robertsdale, AL — 11 mi12. Mobile, AL — 23 mi23. Bay Minette, AL — 24 mi34. Atmore, AL — 51 mi45. Brewton, AL — 64 mi5
  1. Robertsdale, AL 11 mi (17 km)
  2. Mobile, AL 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Bay Minette, AL 24 mi (39 km)
  4. Atmore, AL 51 mi (82 km)
  5. Brewton, AL 64 mi (103 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.5467, -87.8808.