U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00444414 · Virginia

Frost Dates near Bracey, VA

NOAA weather station John H Kerr Dam (USC00444414), Virginia · elevation 250 ft (76 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Bracey is the nearest town to the station (8.8 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season210 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Bracey, VASpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Nov 1Frost season near Bracey, VASpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Nov 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 19October 20
50% (typical)April 5November 1
90% (likely)March 20November 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
210 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 4 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (2 days later). Frost-free season 215 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Bracey: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 19, 20% April 15, 30% April 11, 40% April 8, 50% April 5, 60% April 2, 70% March 31, 80% March 27, 90% March 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 4, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 10, 2024 March 26, 2025 April 9, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 19Apr 5Mar 202021: April 42022: April 202023: April 102024: March 262025: April 92026: April 21Fall near Bracey: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 20, 20% October 25, 30% October 28, 40% October 31, 50% November 1, 60% November 4, 70% November 6, 80% November 10, 90% November 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 20Nov 1Nov 142021: November 52022: October 202023: November 22024: November 302025: November 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 4November 5
2022April 20October 20
2023April 10November 2
2024March 26November 30
2025April 9November 29
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

In the Bracey area the first fall frost with a 32 °F threshold shows a 10 % chance of occurring before October 20, making that early date the cautious point for gardeners to finish harvesting tender crops. By November 1 there is a 50 % chance that a frost has already arrived, which is the typical date that most growers use to plan the end of the season. Waiting until the late date of November 14 raises the risk to 90 %, so counting on tender crops that late is a gamble.

For spring the cautious date for planting tender crops is the late 32 °F date of April 19, when only a 10 % chance of a frost remains after that day. The typical date is April 5, at which point there is a 50 % chance that the last frost has passed, guiding most planting decisions. Planting before the early date of March 20 carries a 90 % chance of a frost after it, so such early planting is a gamble.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light 32 °F frost, and in this location it has a 50 % chance of occurring after March 24 in spring or before November 11 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Bracey, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — South Boston, VA — 33 mi; 2 — near Blackstone, VA — 36 mi; 3 — Emporia, VA — 42 mi; 4 — Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 56 mi; 5 — near Raleigh, NC — 60 mi.NCVA25 mi · 40 km1. South Boston, VA — 33 mi12. near Blackstone, VA — 36 mi23. Emporia, VA — 42 mi34. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 56 mi45. near Raleigh, NC — 60 mi5
  1. South Boston, VA 33 mi (53 km)
  2. near Blackstone, VA 36 mi (58 km)
  3. Emporia, VA 42 mi (67 km)
  4. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC 56 mi (90 km)
  5. near Raleigh, NC 60 mi (97 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.6003, -78.3011.