U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014733 · New York

Frost Dates for Buffalo, NY

NOAA weather station Buffalo (USW00014733), New York · elevation 693 ft (211 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 9only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season183 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Buffalo, NYSpring: a frost after April 11 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 183 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 26Frost season at Buffalo, NYSpring: a frost after April 11 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 183 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 9October 10
50% (typical)April 24October 26
90% (likely)April 11November 9
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
183 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 13
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 23 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29 (3 days later). Frost-free season 187 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Buffalo: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 9, 20% May 3, 30% April 30, 40% April 28, 50% April 24, 60% April 21, 70% April 19, 80% April 16, 90% April 11. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 29, 2023 April 9, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 9Apr 24Apr 112021: April 232022: April 292023: April 92024: April 262025: April 172026: May 3Fall at Buffalo: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 10, 20% October 16, 30% October 19, 40% October 23, 50% October 26, 60% October 28, 70% November 1, 80% November 4, 90% November 9. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 November 9, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 27, 2025 October 26.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 10Oct 26Nov 92021: November 42022: November 92023: October 312024: October 272025: October 26
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 4
2022April 29November 9
2023April 9October 31
2024April 26October 27
2025April 17October 26
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 9 is the cautious spring date, meaning there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day, and it lets a gardener set out tender crops with low risk. The corresponding cautious fall date is October 10, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, allowing the finishing of tender-crop harvests.

The median spring date, April 24, represents a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, while the median fall date, October 26, represents a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The 28 °F hard-frost median dates are April 13 in spring and November 6 in fall; hard frosts can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, making their timing more critical.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 9" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Buffalo, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wales, NY — 16 mi; 2 — Batavia, NY — 29 mi; 3 — Warsaw, NY — 32 mi; 4 — Albion, NY — 34 mi; 5 — Franklinville, NY — 45 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Wales, NY — 16 mi12. Batavia, NY — 29 mi23. Warsaw, NY — 32 mi34. Albion, NY — 34 mi45. Franklinville, NY — 45 mi5
  1. Wales, NY 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Batavia, NY 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Warsaw, NY 32 mi (51 km)
  4. Albion, NY 34 mi (55 km)
  5. Franklinville, NY 45 mi (72 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.9486, -78.7369.