U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014817 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Cadillac, MI

NOAA weather station Cadillac (USW00014817), Michigan · elevation 1295 ft (395 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season135 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cadillac, MISpring: a frost after May 2 in 9 years out of 10, after May 19 in half of the years, after June 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 135 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 19First frost ~Oct 1Frost season at Cadillac, MISpring: a frost after May 2 in 9 years out of 10, after May 19 in half of the years, after June 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 135 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 19First frost ~Oct 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 3September 17
50% (typical)May 19October 1
90% (likely)May 2October 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
135 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 15 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 7 (6 days later). Frost-free season 143 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cadillac: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 3, 20% May 29, 30% May 24, 40% May 22, 50% May 19, 60% May 16, 70% May 11, 80% May 7, 90% May 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 30, 2022 May 8, 2023 May 17, 2024 April 26, 2025 June 1, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 3May 19May 22021: May 302022: May 82023: May 172024: April 262025: June 12026: May 12Fall at Cadillac: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 17, 20% September 22, 30% September 25, 40% September 29, 50% October 1, 60% October 4, 70% October 7, 80% October 11, 90% October 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 18, 2022 September 23, 2023 October 12, 2024 October 5, 2025 September 8.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 17Oct 1Oct 162021: October 182022: September 232023: October 122024: October 52025: September 8
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 30October 18
2022May 8September 23
2023May 17October 12
2024April 26October 5
2025June 1September 8
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 17 is the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops in Cadillac. The 50% date is October 1, marking even odds for a light frost, and the 90% date of October 16 would be a gamble for late tender crops.

In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is June 3, when there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost later. The 50% date is May 19, and the 90% date of May 2 represents a gamble. The 50% hard-frost dates are May 5 and October 13; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F. The record spans 27 years, and the interval between May 19 and October 1 contains 135 days of balanced frost risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 17" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cadillac, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lake City, MI — 10 mi; 2 — Kalkaska, MI — 34 mi; 3 — near Traverse City, MI — 34 mi; 4 — near Houghton Lake, MI — 36 mi; 5 — Big Rapids, MI — 39 mi.MI25 mi · 40 km1. Lake City, MI — 10 mi12. Kalkaska, MI — 34 mi23. near Traverse City, MI — 34 mi34. near Houghton Lake, MI — 36 mi45. Big Rapids, MI — 39 mi5
  1. Lake City, MI 10 mi (16 km)
  2. Kalkaska, MI 34 mi (54 km)
  3. near Traverse City, MI 34 mi (55 km)
  4. near Houghton Lake, MI 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Big Rapids, MI 39 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.2656, -85.3967.