U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014850 · Michigan

Frost Dates near Traverse City, MI

NOAA weather station Traverse City Cherry CPTL Airport (USW00014850), Michigan · elevation 618 ft (188 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

Traverse City is the nearest town to the station (2.4 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season155 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Traverse City, MISpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 12 in half of the years, after May 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 12First frost ~Oct 16Frost season near Traverse City, MISpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 12 in half of the years, after May 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 12First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 27October 1
50% (typical)May 12October 16
90% (likely)April 26November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
155 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 30

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 12 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 19 (3 days later). Frost-free season 159 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Traverse City: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 27, 20% May 22, 30% May 19, 40% May 15, 50% May 12, 60% May 9, 70% May 5, 80% April 30, 90% April 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 May 7, 2023 May 15, 2024 April 26, 2025 May 9, 2026 May 14.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 27May 12Apr 262021: May 132022: May 72023: May 152024: April 262025: May 92026: May 14Fall near Traverse City: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 5, 30% October 9, 40% October 12, 50% October 16, 60% October 18, 70% October 21, 80% October 25, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 27, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 10, 2025 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 16Nov 12021: October 272022: October 272023: October 232024: October 102025: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13October 27
2022May 7October 27
2023May 15October 23
2024April 26October 10
2025May 9October 9
2026May 14season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 155 days between the 50% dates of May 12 and October 16 in the Traverse City area define the core period when a light frost is as likely as not, framing the main window for tender crops.

For a gardener, the median light-frost dates of May 12 and October 16 mark the point at which a 32 °F frost becomes equally probable before or after. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is May 27, when only a 10% chance of a later light frost remains, while the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 1, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived. The median hard-frost dates are April 30 in spring and October 30 in fall.

Hard frosts at 28 °F are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F because they can freeze plant tissues that survive a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Traverse City, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kalkaska, MI — 20 mi; 2 — Frankfort, MI — 31 mi; 3 — Cadillac, MI — 34 mi; 4 — Lake City, MI — 35 mi; 5 — Grayling, MI — 44 mi.MI25 mi · 40 km1. Kalkaska, MI — 20 mi12. Frankfort, MI — 31 mi23. Cadillac, MI — 34 mi34. Lake City, MI — 35 mi45. Grayling, MI — 44 mi5
  1. Kalkaska, MI 20 mi (32 km)
  2. Frankfort, MI 31 mi (51 km)
  3. Cadillac, MI 34 mi (55 km)
  4. Lake City, MI 35 mi (57 km)
  5. Grayling, MI 44 mi (70 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.7408, -85.5825.