U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00025635 · Arizona

Frost Dates near Camp Verde, AZ

NOAA weather station Montezuma Castle National Monument (USC00025635), Arizona · elevation 3180 ft (969 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Camp Verde is the nearest town to the station (3.4 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season196 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Camp Verde, AZSpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 30Frost season near Camp Verde, AZSpring: a frost after March 28 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 2October 15
50% (typical)April 16October 30
90% (likely)March 28November 13
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
196 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 18 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 30. Frost-free season 195 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Camp Verde: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 2, 20% April 28, 30% April 24, 40% April 20, 50% April 16, 60% April 12, 70% April 8, 80% April 4, 90% March 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 25, 2023 April 7, 2025 April 6.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Jun 1May 2Apr 16Mar 282021: May 252023: April 72025: April 6Fall near Camp Verde: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 15, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 28, 50% October 30, 60% November 2, 70% November 5, 80% November 8, 90% November 13. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 28, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 18.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 15Oct 30Nov 132021: November 132022: October 282023: October 302024: October 18
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 25November 13
2022incomplete recordOctober 28
2023April 7October 30
2024incomplete recordOctober 18
2025April 6incomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 28 in the Camp Verde area is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a frost later than that date. The cautious alternative is May 2, when only a 10% chance of a frost remains, making it the preferred spring date for tender varieties.

The 50% light-frost dates—April 16 in spring and October 30 in fall—are the points at which a frost is equally likely to have occurred or not, so they serve as a neutral reference for planning. The median hard-frost dates are March 21 and November 10, indicating when a 28 °F event is as probable as not; hard frost can damage plants more severely than a 32 °F light frost, so it is a stricter threshold for growers.

The cautious fall date is October 15, when there is only a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived, providing a low-risk window to finish harvesting tender crops before the higher-risk November 13 gamble.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 15" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Camp Verde, AZNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Jerome, AZ — 18 mi; 2 — Cordes, AZ — 28 mi; 3 — Prescott, AZ — 34 mi; 4 — near Flagstaff, AZ — 38 mi; 5 — Payson, AZ — 38 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Jerome, AZ — 18 mi12. Cordes, AZ — 28 mi23. Prescott, AZ — 34 mi34. near Flagstaff, AZ — 38 mi45. Payson, AZ — 38 mi5
  1. Jerome, AZ 18 mi (30 km)
  2. Cordes, AZ 28 mi (45 km)
  3. Prescott, AZ 34 mi (55 km)
  4. near Flagstaff, AZ 38 mi (61 km)
  5. Payson, AZ 38 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.6106, -111.8381.