U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00022109 · Arizona

Frost Dates for Cordes, AZ

NOAA weather station Cordes (USC00022109), Arizona · elevation 3771 ft (1149 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 24only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season221 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cordes, AZSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 221 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Nov 17Frost season at Cordes, AZSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 221 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Nov 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 24October 28
50% (typical)April 5November 17
90% (likely)March 9December 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
221 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 7
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 4 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 18 (1 day later). Frost-free season 226 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cordes: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 24, 20% April 17, 30% April 12, 40% April 9, 50% April 5, 60% April 1, 70% March 27, 80% March 18, 90% March 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 24, 2022 March 11, 2023 April 5, 2024 April 7, 2025 April 4, 2026 February 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 24Apr 5Mar 92021: March 242022: March 112023: April 52024: April 72025: April 42026: February 21Fall at Cordes: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 28, 20% November 4, 30% November 9, 40% November 13, 50% November 17, 60% November 20, 70% November 23, 80% November 27, 90% December 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 11, 2022 November 4, 2023 November 26, 2024 November 7, 2025 December 4.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 28Nov 17Dec 32021: December 112022: November 42023: November 262024: November 72025: December 4
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 24December 11
2022March 11November 4
2023April 5November 26
2024April 7November 7
2025April 4December 4
2026February 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 24 is the cautious spring date for light frost (32 °F) in Cordes, carrying only a 10 % chance of a later frost; this lets a gardener schedule the setting out of tender crops with minimal risk.

The 50% dates—April 5 for spring and November 17 for fall—signal an even chance of a light frost occurring on either side of each day, so a gardener can expect roughly equal odds of frost before or after those points. Hard-frost median dates are March 7 in spring and November 28 in fall, marking the point where a 28 °F frost is equally likely to have happened or not.

The cautious fall date is October 28, with a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived; it is the date to finish harvesting tender crops. Planting on March 9 in spring or keeping crops to December 3 in fall carries a 90 % chance of frost and is therefore a gamble. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 24" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cordes, AZNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Prescott, AZ — 24 mi; 2 — near Camp Verde, AZ — 28 mi; 3 — Jerome, AZ — 31 mi; 4 — Payson, AZ — 47 mi; 5 — Walnut Creek, AZ — 57 mi.AZ25 mi · 40 km1. Prescott, AZ — 24 mi12. near Camp Verde, AZ — 28 mi23. Jerome, AZ — 31 mi34. Payson, AZ — 47 mi45. Walnut Creek, AZ — 57 mi5
  1. Prescott, AZ 24 mi (38 km)
  2. near Camp Verde, AZ 28 mi (45 km)
  3. Jerome, AZ 31 mi (50 km)
  4. Payson, AZ 47 mi (76 km)
  5. Walnut Creek, AZ 57 mi (91 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.305, -112.165.