U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014743 · New York

Frost Dates for Canton, NY

NOAA weather station Canton 4 SE (USW00014743), New York · elevation 448 ft (137 m) · hardiness zone 4b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season142 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Canton, NYSpring: a frost after April 27 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 30 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 142 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Sep 30Frost season at Canton, NYSpring: a frost after April 27 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 30 in half of the years, before October 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 142 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Sep 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 25September 16
50% (typical)May 9September 30
90% (likely)April 27October 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
142 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 5 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 4 (4 days later). Frost-free season 151 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Canton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 25, 20% May 19, 30% May 16, 40% May 12, 50% May 9, 60% May 6, 70% May 3, 80% April 30, 90% April 27. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2023 May 25.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 25May 9Apr 272023: May 25Fall at Canton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 16, 20% September 21, 30% September 24, 40% September 27, 50% September 30, 60% October 3, 70% October 5, 80% October 9, 90% October 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2024 October 14.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 16Sep 30Oct 142024: October 14
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordno data
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023May 25incomplete record
2024incomplete recordOctober 14
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

May 25 is the cautious spring date in Canton, marking a 10 % chance that a light frost will occur later and giving a gardener confidence to set out tender crops after that day.

The spring 50 % date is May 9, a point where the likelihood of a 32 °F frost is equal either side, and the hard-frost 50 % date is April 30. In the fall, September 16 is the cautious date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, while September 30 serves as the 50 % date and October 11 marks the hard-frost 50 % date. The interval between the two 32°F 50 % dates, May 9 and September 30, spans 142 days, based on 26 years of record.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light 32 °F frost, so it represents a greater risk for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Canton, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Gouverneur, NY — 25 mi; 2 — Massena, NY — 28 mi; 3 — Malone, NY — 43 mi; 4 — Watertown, NY — 56 mi; 5 — Lowville, NY — 57 mi.NY25 mi · 40 km1. Gouverneur, NY — 25 mi12. Massena, NY — 28 mi23. Malone, NY — 43 mi34. Watertown, NY — 56 mi45. Lowville, NY — 57 mi5
  1. Gouverneur, NY 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Massena, NY 28 mi (45 km)
  3. Malone, NY 43 mi (70 km)
  4. Watertown, NY 56 mi (90 km)
  5. Lowville, NY 57 mi (92 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.5772, -75.1097.