U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00411429 · Texas

Frost Dates near Canyon Lake, TX

NOAA weather station Canyon Dam (USC00411429), Texas · elevation 1000 ft (305 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

Canyon Lake is the nearest town to the station (4.1 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 22only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostDecember 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season276 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Canyon Lake, TXSpring: a frost after January 31 in 9 years out of 10, after March 1 in half of the years, after March 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 9 in 1 year out of 10, before December 1 in half of the years, before December 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 276 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 1First frost ~Dec 1Frost season near Canyon Lake, TXSpring: a frost after January 31 in 9 years out of 10, after March 1 in half of the years, after March 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 9 in 1 year out of 10, before December 1 in half of the years, before December 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 276 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 1First frost ~Dec 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 22November 9
50% (typical)March 1December 1
90% (likely)January 31December 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
276 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 26 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost December 3 (2 days later). Frost-free season 279 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Canyon Lake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 22, 20% March 13, 30% March 8, 40% March 4, 50% March 1, 60% February 25, 70% February 20, 80% February 13, 90% January 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 13, 2023 February 2, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 22Mar 1Jan 312021: February 212022: March 132023: February 22026: March 18Fall near Canyon Lake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 9, 20% November 17, 30% November 22, 40% November 28, 50% December 1, 60% December 5, 70% December 10, 80% December 15, 90% December 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 3, 2022 December 23, 2023 January 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 9Dec 1Dec 262021: January 32022: December 232023: January 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21January 3
2022March 13December 23
2023February 2January 10
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

There are 276 days between the 32 °F 50% dates in the Canyon Lake area, a span that contains the primary growing window for tender crops.

For a gardener, the 50% dates—March 1 and December 1—indicate the point at which a light frost is equally likely to have occurred or not; they are not themselves markers of a frost occurrence but are useful for gauging median risk.

The cautious spring date is March 22, when there is only a 10 % chance of a later light frost, while the cautious fall date is November 9, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F, such as February 10 or December 19, can damage plants that survived a 32 °F light frost, so it is a more serious threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 22" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 9" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Canyon Lake, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — San Marcos, TX — 15 mi; 2 — Blanco, TX — 21 mi; 3 — Dripping Springs, TX — 28 mi; 4 — Boerne, TX — 33 mi; 5 — Luling, TX — 35 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. San Marcos, TX — 15 mi12. Blanco, TX — 21 mi23. Dripping Springs, TX — 28 mi34. Boerne, TX — 33 mi45. Luling, TX — 35 mi5
  1. San Marcos, TX 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Blanco, TX 21 mi (33 km)
  3. Dripping Springs, TX 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Boerne, TX 33 mi (52 km)
  5. Luling, TX 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 29.8608, -98.1958.