U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415429 · Texas

Frost Dates for Luling, TX

NOAA weather station Luling (USC00415429), Texas · elevation 400 ft (122 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season263 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Luling, TXSpring: a frost after February 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after April 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 23 in half of the years, before December 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 23Frost season at Luling, TXSpring: a frost after February 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after April 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 23 in half of the years, before December 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 3November 3
50% (typical)March 5November 23
90% (likely)February 7December 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
263 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 4 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 22 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 263 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Luling: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 3, 20% March 23, 30% March 14, 40% March 9, 50% March 5, 60% March 1, 70% February 26, 80% February 18, 90% February 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 20, 2022 March 13, 2023 February 18, 2024 February 18, 2025 February 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Apr 3Mar 5Feb 72021: February 202022: March 132023: February 182024: February 182025: February 22Fall at Luling: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 3, 20% November 9, 30% November 14, 40% November 19, 50% November 23, 60% November 28, 70% December 1, 80% December 6, 90% December 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 12, 2022 December 17, 2023 December 10, 2024 December 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 3Nov 23Dec 142021: December 122022: December 172023: December 102024: December 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 20December 12
2022March 13December 17
2023February 18December 10
2024February 18December 10
2025February 22incomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 7 in Luling is a gamble, because a frost later than that date occurs with a 90% chance. The more cautious spring choice is April 3, when only a 10% chance of a later frost exists, so tender crops are usually placed in the ground after that date.

For a gardener, the 50% light-frost dates—March 5 in spring and November 23 in fall—mark the point at which the odds of a frost are even; they are not frost dates themselves. The median hard-frost dates are February 17 for spring and December 6 for fall, indicating when a 28 °F frost is equally likely to have occurred. The cautious fall date for finishing tender crops is November 3, with only a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived. A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can damage plant tissue that survives a 32 °F event.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 3" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Luling, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — San Marcos, TX — 23 mi; 2 — near Canyon Lake, TX — 35 mi; 3 — Smithville, TX — 37 mi; 4 — Dripping Springs, TX — 42 mi; 5 — Elgin, TX — 51 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. San Marcos, TX — 23 mi12. near Canyon Lake, TX — 35 mi23. Smithville, TX — 37 mi34. Dripping Springs, TX — 42 mi45. Elgin, TX — 51 mi5
  1. San Marcos, TX 23 mi (36 km)
  2. near Canyon Lake, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  3. Smithville, TX 37 mi (60 km)
  4. Dripping Springs, TX 42 mi (68 km)
  5. Elgin, TX 51 mi (81 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 29.6756, -97.6578.