U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00231340 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Carrollton, MO

NOAA weather station Carrollton (USC00231340), Missouri · elevation 705 ft (215 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season187 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carrollton, MOSpring: a frost after April 1 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 23Frost season at Carrollton, MOSpring: a frost after April 1 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 187 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 7
50% (typical)April 16October 23
90% (likely)April 1November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
187 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 13 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23. Frost-free season 192 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carrollton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 27, 30% April 23, 40% April 20, 50% April 16, 60% April 13, 70% April 10, 80% April 7, 90% April 1. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 26, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 16Apr 12021: April 232022: April 262023: April 242024: April 62025: April 92026: March 29Fall at Carrollton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 7, 20% October 13, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 30, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 7Oct 23Nov 32021: November 22022: October 82023: October 282024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 2
2022April 26October 8
2023April 24October 28
2024April 6October 16
2025April 9November 2
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 187 days between the 32 °F 50% dates in Carrollton demarcate the period when light frosts are less likely than not. The 50% date in spring is April 16, marking an even chance of a light frost later, while the 50% date in fall is October 23, marking an even chance of a light frost earlier. Hard-frost 50% dates are April 4 in spring and November 1 in fall; these are the points where a 28 °F frost is equally likely to occur.

For a cautious planting schedule, tender crops should be set out no earlier than May 1, when the chance of a light frost later is only 10 %; similarly, harvesting of tender crops should be wrapped up by October 7, when the chance of a light frost earlier is only 10 %. A hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because it can damage plant tissue that would survive the milder temperature.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carrollton, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Higginsville, MO — 23 mi; 2 — Chillicothe, MO — 29 mi; 3 — Salisbury, MO — 36 mi; 4 — Elm, MO — 45 mi; 5 — New Franklin, MO — 46 mi.KS25 mi · 40 km1. Higginsville, MO — 23 mi12. Chillicothe, MO — 29 mi23. Salisbury, MO — 36 mi34. Elm, MO — 45 mi45. New Franklin, MO — 46 mi5
  1. Higginsville, MO 23 mi (37 km)
  2. Chillicothe, MO 29 mi (46 km)
  3. Salisbury, MO 36 mi (59 km)
  4. Elm, MO 45 mi (72 km)
  5. New Franklin, MO 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.3594, -93.4886.