U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00232568 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Elm, MO

NOAA weather station Elm (USC00232568), Missouri · elevation 850 ft (259 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season191 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elm, MOSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 191 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 23Frost season at Elm, MOSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 191 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 29October 9
50% (typical)April 13October 23
90% (likely)March 30November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
191 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23. Frost-free season 192 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elm: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 29, 20% April 24, 30% April 20, 40% April 17, 50% April 13, 60% April 9, 70% April 6, 80% April 3, 90% March 30.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 29Apr 13Mar 30Fall at Elm: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 9, 20% October 15, 30% October 18, 40% October 20, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 28, 80% October 31, 90% November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 9Oct 23Nov 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The 191 days between the 50% dates of April 13 and October 23 in Elm frame the interval during which a light frost (32 °F) is equally likely to have occurred or not, providing a reference window for garden planning.

In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 29, when there is only a 10 % chance of a later light frost; planting earlier on March 30 carries a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble. In fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 9, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, while extending to November 3 would involve a 90 % chance of earlier frost.

Hard frosts at 28 °F, marked by the median dates of April 2 and November 1, are more critical because they can cause severe damage to plants that survive a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 9" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elm, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Pleasant Hill, MO — 13 mi; 2 — Higginsville, MO — 23 mi; 3 — Independence, MO — 23 mi; 4 — near Kansas City, MO — 35 mi; 5 — Clinton, MO — 36 mi.MOKS25 mi · 40 km1. Pleasant Hill, MO — 13 mi12. Higginsville, MO — 23 mi23. Independence, MO — 23 mi34. near Kansas City, MO — 35 mi45. Clinton, MO — 36 mi5
  1. Pleasant Hill, MO 13 mi (21 km)
  2. Higginsville, MO 23 mi (36 km)
  3. Independence, MO 23 mi (37 km)
  4. near Kansas City, MO 35 mi (56 km)
  5. Clinton, MO 36 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.8681, -94.0353.