U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00402108 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Covington, TN

NOAA weather station Covington 3 SW (USC00402108), Tennessee · elevation 385 ft (117 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season222 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Covington, TNSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 4Frost season at Covington, TNSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 27 in half of the years, after April 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 4 in half of the years, before November 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 27First frost ~Nov 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 11October 23
50% (typical)March 27November 4
90% (likely)March 8November 21
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
222 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 28 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 4. Frost-free season 223 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Covington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 11, 20% April 6, 30% April 2, 40% March 30, 50% March 27, 60% March 23, 70% March 19, 80% March 16, 90% March 8.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 11Mar 27Mar 8Fall at Covington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 28, 30% October 31, 40% November 1, 50% November 4, 60% November 6, 70% November 10, 80% November 15, 90% November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 4Nov 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

October 23 is the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops, because only a 10 % chance of a light frost has arrived by then. After that date the risk of a frost rises quickly, reaching 90 % on November 21, so planting or keeping out tender crops later is a gamble.

The median light-frost dates are March 27 in spring and November 4 in fall; each marks a 50 % chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). Gardeners who want to set out tender crops with the lowest risk use the cautious spring date of April 11, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later, while the cautious fall date of October 23 serves the same purpose for the end of the season.

Hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, and the 50 % hard-frost dates are March 14 and November 16, indicating when a frost of that severity is as likely as not.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Covington, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Keiser, AR — 24 mi; 2 — Brownsville, TN — 25 mi; 3 — near Cordova, TN — 30 mi; 4 — Memphis (Airport), TN — 38 mi; 5 — West Memphis, AR — 40 mi.ARMSMO25 mi · 40 km1. Keiser, AR — 24 mi12. Brownsville, TN — 25 mi23. near Cordova, TN — 30 mi34. Memphis (Airport), TN — 38 mi45. West Memphis, AR — 40 mi5
  1. Keiser, AR 24 mi (39 km)
  2. Brownsville, TN 25 mi (40 km)
  3. near Cordova, TN 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Memphis (Airport), TN 38 mi (61 km)
  5. West Memphis, AR 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.5497, -89.7.