U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00033821 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Keiser, AR

NOAA weather station Keiser (USC00033821), Arkansas · elevation 232 ft (71 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 8only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season229 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Keiser, ARSpring: a frost after March 4 in 9 years out of 10, after March 23 in half of the years, after April 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 229 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 23First frost ~Nov 6Frost season at Keiser, ARSpring: a frost after March 4 in 9 years out of 10, after March 23 in half of the years, after April 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 23 in 1 year out of 10, before November 6 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 229 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 23First frost ~Nov 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 8October 23
50% (typical)March 23November 6
90% (likely)March 4November 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
229 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 8
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 19 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 230 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Keiser: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 8, 20% April 3, 30% March 30, 40% March 26, 50% March 23, 60% March 19, 70% March 15, 80% March 10, 90% March 4. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 8Mar 23Mar 42021: April 212022: March 142023: March 212024: March 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Keiser: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 23, 20% October 29, 30% November 1, 40% November 3, 50% November 6, 60% November 9, 70% November 15, 80% November 19, 90% November 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 23Nov 6Nov 272021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 4
2022March 14October 18
2023March 21October 31
2024March 20November 29
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

There are 229 days between the 32 °F 50% dates in Keiser, a span that contains the typical growing season for most tender crops.

The 50% spring date is March 23, with a 50% chance of a light frost later than this date, and the 50% fall date is November 6, with a 50% chance of a light frost earlier than this date. For a cautious plan, gardeners use the April 8 date in spring, when only a 10% chance of a light frost remains later, and the October 23 date in fall, when there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

Hard-frost risk is highlighted by the 28 °F 50% dates—March 8 and November 22—because a hard frost is colder and can cause substantially more damage to tender plants than a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 8" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Keiser, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Covington, TN — 24 mi; 2 — Paragould, AR — 33 mi; 3 — Jonesboro, AR — 33 mi; 4 — West Memphis, AR — 39 mi; 5 — near Cordova, TN — 42 mi.ARTNMSMO25 mi · 40 km1. Covington, TN — 24 mi12. Paragould, AR — 33 mi23. Jonesboro, AR — 33 mi34. West Memphis, AR — 39 mi45. near Cordova, TN — 42 mi5
  1. Covington, TN 24 mi (39 km)
  2. Paragould, AR 33 mi (53 km)
  3. Jonesboro, AR 33 mi (54 km)
  4. West Memphis, AR 39 mi (63 km)
  5. near Cordova, TN 42 mi (67 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.6872, -90.0964.