U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00202423 · Michigan

Frost Dates for East Tawas, MI

NOAA weather station East Tawas (USC00202423), Michigan · elevation 586 ft (179 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season148 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at East Tawas, MISpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 148 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 5Frost season at East Tawas, MISpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 148 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 26September 23
50% (typical)May 8October 5
90% (likely)April 26October 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
148 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 17

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 8 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 11 (6 days later). Frost-free season 155 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at East Tawas: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 26, 20% May 19, 30% May 16, 40% May 12, 50% May 8, 60% May 5, 70% May 2, 80% April 30, 90% April 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 30, 2022 May 23, 2023 May 26, 2024 April 26, 2025 May 9, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 26May 8Apr 262021: May 302022: May 232023: May 262024: April 262025: May 92026: May 12Fall at East Tawas: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 23, 20% September 28, 30% October 1, 40% October 3, 50% October 5, 60% October 7, 70% October 10, 80% October 13, 90% October 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 September 29, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 16, 2025 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 23Oct 5Oct 172021: October 222022: September 292023: October 232024: October 162025: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 30October 22
2022May 23September 29
2023May 26October 23
2024April 26October 16
2025May 9October 9
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

East Tawas enjoys a 148-day span between the two 32 °F 50% dates, May 8 and October 5, which defines the period of even odds for a light frost.

For a gardener, the 50% date of May 8 indicates a 50 % chance that a light frost could still occur later in spring, while the October 5 50% date indicates a 50 % chance that a light frost could already have occurred by that date. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is May 26, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains; the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 23, when there is only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier.

A hard frost at 28 °F – marked by the median dates April 28 in spring and October 17 in fall – can cause more serious plant damage than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near East Tawas, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hale Loud Dam, MI — 16 mi; 2 — Standish, MI — 27 mi; 3 — West Branch, MI — 35 mi; 4 — Bad Axe, MI — 41 mi; 5 — Harbor Beach, MI — 53 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Hale Loud Dam, MI — 16 mi12. Standish, MI — 27 mi23. West Branch, MI — 35 mi34. Bad Axe, MI — 41 mi45. Harbor Beach, MI — 53 mi5
  1. Hale Loud Dam, MI 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Standish, MI 27 mi (44 km)
  3. West Branch, MI 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Bad Axe, MI 41 mi (67 km)
  5. Harbor Beach, MI 53 mi (85 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.2839, -83.5036.