U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00203529 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Hale Loud Dam, MI

NOAA weather station Hale Loud Dam (USC00203529), Michigan · elevation 728 ft (222 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season143 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hale Loud Dam, MISpring: a frost after May 1 in 9 years out of 10, after May 16 in half of the years, after May 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 143 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 16First frost ~Oct 5Frost season at Hale Loud Dam, MISpring: a frost after May 1 in 9 years out of 10, after May 16 in half of the years, after May 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 143 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 16First frost ~Oct 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 30September 22
50% (typical)May 16October 5
90% (likely)May 1October 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
143 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 18

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 14 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 11 (6 days later). Frost-free season 148 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hale Loud Dam: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 30, 20% May 25, 30% May 21, 40% May 18, 50% May 16, 60% May 13, 70% May 10, 80% May 6, 90% May 1. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 29, 2022 May 5, 2023 May 26, 2024 May 7, 2025 May 20, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 30May 16May 12021: May 292022: May 52023: May 262024: May 72025: May 202026: May 12Fall at Hale Loud Dam: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 22, 20% September 27, 30% October 1, 40% October 3, 50% October 5, 60% October 8, 70% October 11, 80% October 14, 90% October 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 October 3, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 9, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 22Oct 5Oct 192021: October 222022: October 32023: October 232024: October 92025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 29October 22
2022May 5October 3
2023May 26October 23
2024May 7October 9
2025May 20October 24
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 30 is the cautious spring light-frost date, meaning there is only a 10 % chance of a frost after that day; gardeners can plan to set out tender crops with relatively low risk.

The 50 % light-frost dates are May 16 and October 5; at each of these points there is an even chance that a light frost will occur later in spring or earlier in fall. The 50 % hard-frost dates are May 4 and October 18, marking the median odds for temperatures dropping to 28 °F. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

September 22 is the cautious fall light-frost date, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived, allowing growers to finish harvesting tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hale Loud Dam, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — East Tawas, MI — 16 mi; 2 — West Branch, MI — 28 mi; 3 — Standish, MI — 32 mi; 4 — Alpena County Regional Airport, MI — 43 mi; 5 — Alpena, MI — 44 mi.MI25 mi · 40 km1. East Tawas, MI — 16 mi12. West Branch, MI — 28 mi23. Standish, MI — 32 mi34. Alpena County Regional Airport, MI — 43 mi45. Alpena, MI — 44 mi5
  1. East Tawas, MI 16 mi (26 km)
  2. West Branch, MI 28 mi (45 km)
  3. Standish, MI 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Alpena County Regional Airport, MI 43 mi (69 km)
  5. Alpena, MI 44 mi (70 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.4633, -83.7217.