U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00292865 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Elk, NM

NOAA weather station Elk (USC00292865), New Mexico · elevation 5934 ft (1809 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season155 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elk, NMSpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 11Frost season at Elk, NMSpring: a frost after April 25 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 27 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 155 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 19September 27
50% (typical)May 7October 11
90% (likely)April 25October 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
155 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 9 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 13 (2 days later). Frost-free season 157 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elk: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 19, 20% May 15, 30% May 11, 40% May 9, 50% May 7, 60% May 4, 70% May 2, 80% April 30, 90% April 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 April 26, 2023 April 29, 2024 May 7, 2025 May 7, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 19May 7Apr 252021: April 242022: April 262023: April 292024: May 72025: May 72026: April 19Fall at Elk: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 27, 20% October 1, 30% October 5, 40% October 7, 50% October 11, 60% October 14, 70% October 17, 80% October 20, 90% October 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 19, 2023 October 14, 2024 October 22, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 27Oct 11Oct 242022: October 192023: October 142024: October 222025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24incomplete record
2022April 26October 19
2023April 29October 14
2024May 7October 22
2025May 7October 19
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of April 25 in Elk is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a frost later than that day. Gardeners who prefer a lower risk wait for the cautious date of May 19, which carries only a 10% chance of a later frost, and in the fall they aim to finish harvesting tender crops by the cautious date of September 27, when there is just a 10% chance a frost has already arrived.

The 50% date is May 7 for light frost in spring and October 11 for light frost in fall; each represents an even odds point, with a 50% chance of a frost later than May 7 and a 50% chance of a frost earlier than October 11. The hard-frost 50% date in spring is April 27 and in fall is October 22.

Hard frost at 28 °F matters more than light frost at 32 °F because it can kill plants that would survive the milder temperature.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elk, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Alamogordo, NM — 28 mi; 2 — near Roswell, NM — 55 mi; 3 — Artesia, NM — 57 mi; 4 — Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 75 mi; 5 — Carlsbad, NM — 76 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. near Alamogordo, NM — 28 mi12. near Roswell, NM — 55 mi23. Artesia, NM — 57 mi34. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 75 mi45. Carlsbad, NM — 76 mi5
  1. near Alamogordo, NM 28 mi (45 km)
  2. near Roswell, NM 55 mi (89 km)
  3. Artesia, NM 57 mi (91 km)
  4. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM 75 mi (120 km)
  5. Carlsbad, NM 76 mi (122 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.9161, -105.3381.