U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00234154 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Independence, MO

NOAA weather station Independence (USC00234154), Missouri · elevation 985 ft (300 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season198 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Independence, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 27 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 198 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 27Frost season at Independence, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 27 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 198 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 27
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 26October 14
50% (typical)April 10October 27
90% (likely)March 29November 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
198 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 199 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Independence: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 26, 20% April 21, 30% April 16, 40% April 13, 50% April 10, 60% April 7, 70% April 5, 80% April 1, 90% March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 26Apr 10Mar 29Fall at Independence: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 14, 20% October 19, 30% October 22, 40% October 24, 50% October 27, 60% October 29, 70% November 1, 80% November 3, 90% November 8.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 14Oct 27Nov 8
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The 198 days between the 50% dates in Independence, Missouri, mark the span between the median light-frost dates of spring and fall. The 50% date in spring is April 10, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost occurring later than that day; the 50% date in fall is October 27, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost occurring earlier than that day.

For a cautious planting schedule, the spring cautious date is April 26, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, while the fall cautious date is October 14, which carries only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier. A hard frost, recorded at 28 °F, is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, and the 50% hard-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 5 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 14" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Independence, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Kansas City, MO — 12 mi; 2 — Pleasant Hill, MO — 19 mi; 3 — Elm, MO — 23 mi; 4 — Kansas City (Airport), MO — 24 mi; 5 — Higginsville, MO — 36 mi.MOKS25 mi · 40 km1. near Kansas City, MO — 12 mi12. Pleasant Hill, MO — 19 mi23. Elm, MO — 23 mi34. Kansas City (Airport), MO — 24 mi45. Higginsville, MO — 36 mi5
  1. near Kansas City, MO 12 mi (19 km)
  2. Pleasant Hill, MO 19 mi (30 km)
  3. Elm, MO 23 mi (37 km)
  4. Kansas City (Airport), MO 24 mi (39 km)
  5. Higginsville, MO 36 mi (59 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.0647, -94.3861.