U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00252680 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Elsmere, NE

NOAA weather station Elsmere 9 ENE (USC00252680), Nebraska · elevation 2654 ft (809 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season150 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elsmere, NESpring: a frost after April 23 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 3 in half of the years, before October 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 3Frost season at Elsmere, NESpring: a frost after April 23 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 3 in half of the years, before October 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 19September 19
50% (typical)May 6October 3
90% (likely)April 23October 15
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
150 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 8 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 5 (2 days later). Frost-free season 149 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elsmere: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 19, 20% May 15, 30% May 12, 40% May 9, 50% May 6, 60% May 4, 70% May 1, 80% April 28, 90% April 23. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2023 May 3, 2024 May 4, 2025 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 19May 6Apr 232021: May 122023: May 32024: May 42025: May 3Fall at Elsmere: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 19, 20% September 24, 30% September 28, 40% October 1, 50% October 3, 60% October 5, 70% October 9, 80% October 11, 90% October 15. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 14, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 1, 2025 September 6.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 19Oct 3Oct 152021: October 142022: October 82023: October 72024: October 12025: September 6
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 14
2022incomplete recordOctober 8
2023May 3October 7
2024May 4October 1
2025May 3September 6
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date, April 23, is a gamble in Elsmere because there is a 90 % chance of a light frost later than this date.

The cautious spring date for tender crops is May 19, when only a 10 % chance of a light frost remains. In the fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 19, carrying a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier than that date. May 6 is the 50 % date, indicating an even odds of a frost later than this date, and October 3 is the 50 % date, indicating an even odds of a frost earlier than this date.

Hard-frost thresholds at 28 °F, marked by April 27 in spring and October 13 in fall, matter more than 32 °F light-frost thresholds because the lower temperature can injure plants that survive the milder frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elsmere, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Ainsworth, NE — 27 mi; 2 — Anselmo, NE — 39 mi; 3 — Newport, NE — 46 mi; 4 — Springview, NE — 48 mi; 5 — Atkinson, NE — 55 mi.NESD25 mi · 40 km1. Ainsworth, NE — 27 mi12. Anselmo, NE — 39 mi23. Newport, NE — 46 mi34. Springview, NE — 48 mi45. Atkinson, NE — 55 mi5
  1. Ainsworth, NE 27 mi (44 km)
  2. Anselmo, NE 39 mi (63 km)
  3. Newport, NE 46 mi (73 km)
  4. Springview, NE 48 mi (77 km)
  5. Atkinson, NE 55 mi (89 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.1717, -100.0106.