U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00413329 · Texas

Frost Dates for Fredericksburg, TX

NOAA weather station Fredericksburg (USC00413329), Texas · elevation 1685 ft (514 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 9only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season235 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Fredericksburg, TXSpring: a frost after February 27 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 235 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 10Frost season at Fredericksburg, TXSpring: a frost after February 27 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 235 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 9October 27
50% (typical)March 18November 10
90% (likely)February 27November 28
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
235 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 14 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 12 (2 days later). Frost-free season 242 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Fredericksburg: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 9, 20% April 2, 30% March 28, 40% March 23, 50% March 18, 60% March 14, 70% March 10, 80% March 5, 90% February 27. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 4, 2022 March 14, 2023 February 20, 2024 March 1, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 9Mar 18Feb 272021: March 42022: March 142023: February 202024: March 12025: March 212026: March 18Fall at Fredericksburg: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% November 1, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 10, 60% November 13, 70% November 17, 80% November 22, 90% November 28. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 24, 2022 November 14, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 22, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 10Nov 282021: November 242022: November 142023: November 12024: November 222025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 4November 24
2022March 14November 14
2023February 20November 1
2024March 1November 22
2025March 21October 30
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 235 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Fredericksburg, March 18 and November 10, bracket the interval when a gardener can generally operate without a light frost. The 50% date of March 18 means an even chance of a light frost occurring later in spring, and the 50% date of November 10 means an even chance of a light frost occurring earlier in fall, providing a statistical midpoint for planning.

A cautious spring plan would wait until the April 9 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, while a cautious fall plan would aim to finish tender crops by the October 27 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, making it a more severe threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 9" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Fredericksburg, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kerrville, TX — 17 mi; 2 — Blanco, TX — 31 mi; 3 — Boerne, TX — 32 mi; 4 — near Canyon Lake, TX — 50 mi; 5 — Dripping Springs, TX — 55 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Kerrville, TX — 17 mi12. Blanco, TX — 31 mi23. Boerne, TX — 32 mi34. near Canyon Lake, TX — 50 mi45. Dripping Springs, TX — 55 mi5
  1. Kerrville, TX 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Blanco, TX 31 mi (50 km)
  3. Boerne, TX 32 mi (52 km)
  4. near Canyon Lake, TX 50 mi (81 km)
  5. Dripping Springs, TX 55 mi (89 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.2392, -98.9089.