U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00123418 · Indiana

Frost Dates for Goshen, IN

NOAA weather station Goshen 3 SW (USC00123418), Indiana · elevation 875 ft (267 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season175 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Goshen, INSpring: a frost after April 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 2 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 21Frost season at Goshen, INSpring: a frost after April 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 2 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 12October 6
50% (typical)April 26October 21
90% (likely)April 13November 2
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
175 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 16
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 25 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23 (2 days later). Frost-free season 178 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Goshen: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 12, 20% May 7, 30% May 3, 40% April 30, 50% April 26, 60% April 23, 70% April 20, 80% April 17, 90% April 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 April 27, 2023 April 27, 2024 April 25, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 12Apr 26Apr 132021: May 122022: April 272023: April 272024: April 252025: April 172026: May 2Fall at Goshen: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 11, 30% October 15, 40% October 18, 50% October 21, 60% October 23, 70% October 26, 80% October 29, 90% November 2. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 17, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 27, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 21Nov 22021: October 272022: October 172023: October 312024: October 272025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 27
2022April 27October 17
2023April 27October 31
2024April 25October 27
2025April 17October 25
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 175 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Goshen, Indiana, frame the window when a light frost is no more likely than not. The 50% spring date, April 26, marks a 50% chance of a frost later than that day, while the 50% fall date, October 21, marks a 50% chance of a frost earlier than that day.

For a cautious plan, tender crops should be set out after the May 12 date, which carries only a 10% chance of a later frost, and harvested before the October 6 date, which carries only a 10% chance of an earlier frost. Planting on April 13 in spring or keeping crops until November 2 in fall involves a 90% chance of frost and is therefore a gamble. The hard-frost median dates are April 16 and November 1, and a hard frost can damage plants more severely than a light frost. The record spans 30 years of observations.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Goshen, INNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lakeville, IN — 20 mi; 2 — near South Bend, IN — 25 mi; 3 — Plymouth, IN — 28 mi; 4 — Three Rivers, MI — 29 mi; 5 — Dowagiac, MI — 32 mi.MIOHIL25 mi · 40 km1. Lakeville, IN — 20 mi12. near South Bend, IN — 25 mi23. Plymouth, IN — 28 mi34. Three Rivers, MI — 29 mi45. Dowagiac, MI — 32 mi5
  1. Lakeville, IN 20 mi (32 km)
  2. near South Bend, IN 25 mi (40 km)
  3. Plymouth, IN 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Three Rivers, MI 29 mi (46 km)
  5. Dowagiac, MI 32 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.5575, -85.8825.