U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00014935 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Grand Island, NE

NOAA weather station Grand Island Airport (USW00014935), Nebraska · elevation 1840 ft (561 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season174 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Grand Island, NESpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 174 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 15Frost season at Grand Island, NESpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 174 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 6September 29
50% (typical)April 23October 15
90% (likely)April 9October 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
174 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 12
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 23

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 23 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 16 (1 day later). Frost-free season 175 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Grand Island: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 6, 20% May 2, 30% April 29, 40% April 26, 50% April 23, 60% April 20, 70% April 17, 80% April 14, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 25, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 21, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 6Apr 23Apr 92021: April 222022: April 252023: May 32024: April 212025: April 212026: May 2Fall at Grand Island: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 4, 30% October 8, 40% October 12, 50% October 15, 60% October 18, 70% October 20, 80% October 23, 90% October 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 16, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 22.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 15Oct 272021: October 162022: October 82023: October 72024: October 142025: October 22
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22October 16
2022April 25October 8
2023May 3October 7
2024April 21October 14
2025April 21October 22
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 9 carries a 90 % chance that a light frost will still occur later in the season, making it a gamble for Grand Island growers.

A more cautious approach waits until May 6, when the chance of a later frost drops to 10 %, and finishes harvestes by September 29, at which point there is only a 10 % chance a frost has arrived earlier. The 50 % dates—April 23 for spring and October 15 for fall—mark the point where the odds of a light frost are even, and the hard-frost 50 % dates are April 12 and October 23.

Because a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, the hard-frost dates are a more critical threshold for tender crops in this region.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Grand Island, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hastings, NE — 22 mi; 2 — Ravenna, NE — 32 mi; 3 — Clay Center, NE — 33 mi; 4 — Kearney, NE — 40 mi; 5 — Greeley, NE — 42 mi.NE25 mi · 40 km1. Hastings, NE — 22 mi12. Ravenna, NE — 32 mi23. Clay Center, NE — 33 mi34. Kearney, NE — 40 mi45. Greeley, NE — 42 mi5
  1. Hastings, NE 22 mi (35 km)
  2. Ravenna, NE 32 mi (52 km)
  3. Clay Center, NE 33 mi (54 km)
  4. Kearney, NE 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Greeley, NE 42 mi (68 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.9611, -98.3136.