U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00254335 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Kearney, NE

NOAA weather station Kearney 4 NE (USC00254335), Nebraska · elevation 2130 ft (649 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 3050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season162 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Kearney, NESpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 30 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 30First frost ~Oct 10Frost season at Kearney, NESpring: a frost after April 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 30 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 10 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 30First frost ~Oct 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 12September 25
50% (typical)April 30October 10
90% (likely)April 16October 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
162 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 29 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (4 days later). Frost-free season 166 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Kearney: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 12, 20% May 7, 30% May 4, 40% May 2, 50% April 30, 60% April 28, 70% April 25, 80% April 21, 90% April 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 10, 2022 April 26, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 20, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 12Apr 30Apr 162021: May 102022: April 262023: May 32024: April 222025: April 202026: May 3Fall at Kearney: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% September 30, 30% October 3, 40% October 7, 50% October 10, 60% October 13, 70% October 15, 80% October 18, 90% October 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 October 17, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 22.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 10Oct 222021: October 222022: October 172023: October 72024: October 142025: October 22
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 10October 22
2022April 26October 17
2023May 3October 7
2024April 22October 14
2025April 20October 22
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 12 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Kearney, meaning there is only a 10 % chance of a frost occurring later and it marks the time a gardener can set out tender crops with low risk. The earlier date of April 16 carries a 90 % chance of frost later and would be a gamble for such crops.

The 50 % light-frost dates are April 30 in spring and October 10 in fall; each represents an even-odds point where a frost is just as likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). For a cautious fall schedule, September 25 is the date with only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived, suitable for finishing harvest of tender crops, while October 22 carries a 90 % chance of an earlier frost and would be risky. Hard frost at 28 °F, marked by the median dates April 19 and October 19, can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Kearney, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Minden, NE — 15 mi; 2 — Ravenna, NE — 22 mi; 3 — Holdrege, NE — 27 mi; 4 — Hastings, NE — 33 mi; 5 — near Lexington, NE — 36 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Minden, NE — 15 mi12. Ravenna, NE — 22 mi23. Holdrege, NE — 27 mi34. Hastings, NE — 33 mi45. near Lexington, NE — 36 mi5
  1. Minden, NE 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Ravenna, NE 22 mi (35 km)
  3. Holdrege, NE 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Hastings, NE 33 mi (54 km)
  5. near Lexington, NE 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.7258, -99.0133.