U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414098 · Texas

Frost Dates for Hereford, TX

NOAA weather station Hereford (USC00414098), Texas · elevation 3820 ft (1164 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season189 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hereford, TXSpring: a frost after April 3 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 25Frost season at Hereford, TXSpring: a frost after April 3 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 189 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 11
50% (typical)April 17October 25
90% (likely)April 3November 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
189 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 20 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 188 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hereford: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 26, 30% April 23, 40% April 19, 50% April 17, 60% April 14, 70% April 11, 80% April 7, 90% April 3. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2023 April 8, 2024 April 3, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 17Apr 32023: April 82024: April 32026: April 19Fall at Hereford: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 17, 30% October 20, 40% October 23, 50% October 25, 60% October 28, 70% October 31, 80% November 2, 90% November 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 25, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 25Nov 62022: October 252024: October 312025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022incomplete recordOctober 25
2023April 8incomplete record
2024April 3October 31
2025incomplete recordOctober 19
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 3 in Hereford is a gamble, because a frost later than that date occurs with a 90 % chance. The cautious alternative is to wait until May 1, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains, giving a much lower risk for early planting.

For a gardener, the 50 % date is April 17 in spring and October 25 in fall; at each of those points there is an even chance of a light frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). The 50 % hard-frost dates are April 5 and November 4, marking the median moment when temperatures reach 28 °F. Hard frost matters more than a light frost because plants that can survive 32 °F may still be harmed when temperatures drop to 28 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hereford, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Dimmitt, TX — 17 mi; 2 — Friona, TX — 22 mi; 3 — Hart, TX — 35 mi; 4 — Tulia, TX — 41 mi; 5 — near Muleshoe, TX — 45 mi.TXNM25 mi · 40 km1. Dimmitt, TX — 17 mi12. Friona, TX — 22 mi23. Hart, TX — 35 mi34. Tulia, TX — 41 mi45. near Muleshoe, TX — 45 mi5
  1. Dimmitt, TX 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Friona, TX 22 mi (35 km)
  3. Hart, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Tulia, TX 41 mi (66 km)
  5. near Muleshoe, TX 45 mi (73 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.8172, -102.4003.