U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00314260 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Hot Springs, NC

NOAA weather station Hot Springs (USC00314260), North Carolina · elevation 1345 ft (410 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season201 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Hot Springs, NCSpring: a frost after March 25 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Hot Springs, NCSpring: a frost after March 25 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 27October 16
50% (typical)April 11October 29
90% (likely)March 25November 10
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
201 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 29
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 31 (2 days later). Frost-free season 205 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Hot Springs: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 27, 20% April 22, 30% April 18, 40% April 15, 50% April 11, 60% April 8, 70% April 4, 80% March 31, 90% March 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 11, 2023 April 25, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 14, 2026 March 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 27Apr 11Mar 252021: April 232022: April 112023: April 252024: March 292025: April 142026: March 19Fall at Hot Springs: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 20, 30% October 23, 40% October 26, 50% October 29, 60% November 1, 70% November 3, 80% November 6, 90% November 10. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 7, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 29Nov 102021: November 72022: October 202023: November 12024: November 212025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 7
2022April 11October 20
2023April 25November 1
2024March 29November 21
2025April 14October 24
2026March 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 201 days between the 50% dates in Hot Springs span the interval from April 11 to October 29, marking the period when light-frost risk is balanced. The 50% dates are April 11 in spring and October 29 in fall; a gardener can expect an equal chance of a 32 °F frost could occur on either side of the date.

For a cautious approach, the spring late date of April 27 carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost and is the recommended day to set out tender crops. In autumn, the early date of October 16 holds a 10 % chance of an earlier frost and serves as the prudent deadline for finishing harvest of tender crops. The 90 % dates—March 25 and November 10—represent gamble levels.

The 50% hard-frost dates are March 29 and November 7; hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Hot Springs, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Marshall, NC — 11 mi; 2 — Waterville, NC — 17 mi; 3 — Newport, TN — 22 mi; 4 — Asheville, NC — 26 mi; 5 — Erwin, TN — 28 mi.TNSC25 mi · 40 km1. Marshall, NC — 11 mi12. Waterville, NC — 17 mi23. Newport, TN — 22 mi34. Asheville, NC — 26 mi45. Erwin, TN — 28 mi5
  1. Marshall, NC 11 mi (18 km)
  2. Waterville, NC 17 mi (28 km)
  3. Newport, TN 22 mi (35 km)
  4. Asheville, NC 26 mi (42 km)
  5. Erwin, TN 28 mi (46 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.8953, -82.8314.