U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00319123 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Waterville, NC

NOAA weather station Waterville 2 (USC00319123), North Carolina · elevation 1430 ft (436 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season210 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Waterville, NCSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 1Frost season at Waterville, NCSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 20 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 210 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 20
50% (typical)April 6November 1
90% (likely)March 20November 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
210 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 3 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3 (2 days later). Frost-free season 214 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Waterville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 18, 30% April 13, 40% April 9, 50% April 6, 60% April 3, 70% March 31, 80% March 28, 90% March 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 6Mar 20Fall at Waterville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 20, 20% October 24, 30% October 27, 40% October 30, 50% November 1, 60% November 3, 70% November 5, 80% November 9, 90% November 14.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 20Nov 1Nov 14
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

April 23 is the cautious spring date, with only a 10 % chance of a light frost occurring later; this lets a gardener confidently plan to set out tender crops after that day. The earlier spring date, March 20, carries a 90 % chance of a frost later and is a gamble for tender plants. In the fall, October 20 serves as the cautious date, offering just a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, allowing the gardener to finish harvesting tender crops with confidence, while the later date, November 14, has a 90 % chance of a frost earlier and is risky.

The 50 % light-frost dates are April 6 and November 1, meaning there is an even chance of a frost on either side of each day. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 24 and November 13; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Waterville, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Newport, TN — 16 mi; 2 — Hot Springs, NC — 17 mi; 3 — Mount Leconte, TN — 21 mi; 4 — Waynesville, NC — 21 mi; 5 — Marshall, NC — 24 mi.NCTNSC25 mi · 40 km1. Newport, TN — 16 mi12. Hot Springs, NC — 17 mi23. Mount Leconte, TN — 21 mi34. Waynesville, NC — 21 mi45. Marshall, NC — 24 mi5
  1. Newport, TN 16 mi (25 km)
  2. Hot Springs, NC 17 mi (28 km)
  3. Mount Leconte, TN 21 mi (34 km)
  4. Waynesville, NC 21 mi (34 km)
  5. Marshall, NC 24 mi (39 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.7744, -83.0997.