U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415193 · Texas

Frost Dates for Lexington, TX

NOAA weather station Lexington (USC00415193), Texas · elevation 423 ft (129 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 31only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season262 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lexington, TXSpring: a frost after February 10 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 262 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 21Frost season at Lexington, TXSpring: a frost after February 10 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 31 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 3 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 262 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 31November 3
50% (typical)March 5November 21
90% (likely)February 10December 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
262 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 6 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 20 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 256 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lexington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 31, 20% March 21, 30% March 15, 40% March 10, 50% March 5, 60% March 1, 70% February 24, 80% February 19, 90% February 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 31Mar 5Feb 102021: February 21Fall at Lexington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 3, 20% November 7, 30% November 13, 40% November 16, 50% November 21, 60% November 25, 70% November 30, 80% December 3, 90% December 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 3Nov 21Dec 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21incomplete record
2022incomplete recordno data
2023no datano data
2024no datano data
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The 262 days between the 50% dates, March 5 and November 21, cover the period when light frosts are equally likely to have occurred or not, allowing most planting and harvesting activities. The 50% date of March 5 marks the point in spring when a light frost is just as likely to have happened as not, and November 21 does the same for fall. For a cautious approach, tender crops should be set out after the March 31 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, and should be finished by November 3, which carries only a 10 % chance of an earlier frost. A hard frost at 28 °F, noted on February 17 in spring and December 3 in fall, can damage plants more severely than the 32 °F light-frost thresholds.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 31" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 3" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lexington, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Elgin, TX — 21 mi; 2 — Smithville, TX — 29 mi; 3 — Brenham, TX — 41 mi; 4 — College Station, TX — 41 mi; 5 — Columbus, TX — 56 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Elgin, TX — 21 mi12. Smithville, TX — 29 mi23. Brenham, TX — 41 mi34. College Station, TX — 41 mi45. Columbus, TX — 56 mi5
  1. Elgin, TX 21 mi (35 km)
  2. Smithville, TX 29 mi (46 km)
  3. Brenham, TX 41 mi (65 km)
  4. College Station, TX 41 mi (65 km)
  5. Columbus, TX 56 mi (89 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.4064, -97.0133.