U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00412820 · Texas

Frost Dates for Elgin, TX

NOAA weather station Elgin 1 N (USC00412820), Texas · elevation 594 ft (181 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season264 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elgin, TXSpring: a frost after February 12 in 9 years out of 10, after March 4 in half of the years, after March 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 24 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 264 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 4First frost ~Nov 24Frost season at Elgin, TXSpring: a frost after February 12 in 9 years out of 10, after March 4 in half of the years, after March 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 5 in 1 year out of 10, before November 24 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 264 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 4First frost ~Nov 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 23November 5
50% (typical)March 4November 24
90% (likely)February 12December 13
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
264 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 28 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 28 (4 days later). Frost-free season 273 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elgin: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 23, 20% March 17, 30% March 12, 40% March 8, 50% March 4, 60% March 1, 70% February 26, 80% February 20, 90% February 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 23Mar 4Feb 12Fall at Elgin: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 5, 20% November 11, 30% November 15, 40% November 20, 50% November 24, 60% November 28, 70% December 2, 80% December 6, 90% December 13.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 5Nov 24Dec 13
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on February 12 in Elgin carries a 90% chance of a light frost, so it is a gamble for gardeners.

The cautious date for spring is March 23, when there is only a 10% chance that a light frost will occur later. In the fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is November 5, with just a 10% chance a light frost has already arrived. The 50% dates—March 4 for spring and November 24 for fall—mark the median point where a light frost is equally likely to have happened or not, giving gardeners a reference for average risk.

Hard frosts at 28 °F become a greater threat; the 50% dates for those events are February 21 in spring and December 9 in fall, and a 28 °F frost can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 5" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elgin, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lexington, TX — 21 mi; 2 — Smithville, TX — 27 mi; 3 — Dripping Springs, TX — 38 mi; 4 — San Marcos, TX — 48 mi; 5 — Luling, TX — 51 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Lexington, TX — 21 mi12. Smithville, TX — 27 mi23. Dripping Springs, TX — 38 mi34. San Marcos, TX — 48 mi45. Luling, TX — 51 mi5
  1. Lexington, TX 21 mi (35 km)
  2. Smithville, TX 27 mi (44 km)
  3. Dripping Springs, TX 38 mi (61 km)
  4. San Marcos, TX 48 mi (77 km)
  5. Luling, TX 51 mi (81 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.3642, -97.37.