U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00444876 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Lexington, VA

NOAA weather station Lexington (USC00444876), Virginia · elevation 1097 ft (334 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season181 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lexington, VASpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 181 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 23Frost season at Lexington, VASpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 23 in half of the years, after May 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 9 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 181 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 23First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 11October 9
50% (typical)April 23October 23
90% (likely)April 8November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
181 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 17 (6 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26 (3 days later). Frost-free season 189 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lexington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 11, 20% May 5, 30% May 1, 40% April 26, 50% April 23, 60% April 19, 70% April 16, 80% April 13, 90% April 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 April 21, 2023 April 26.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 11Apr 23Apr 82021: April 242022: April 212023: April 26Fall at Lexington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 9, 20% October 13, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 28, 80% October 31, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 23.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 9Oct 23Nov 32021: November 32022: October 92023: October 23
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24November 3
2022April 21October 9
2023April 26October 23
2024incomplete recordno data
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 9 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Lexington, where there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 11, when the chance of a light frost later than that date is just 10%; planting on April 8 carries a 90% chance of a later frost and is a gamble.

The 50% light-frost date in spring is April 23; at that point there is a 50% chance of a light frost later than this date. The 50% light-frost date in fall is October 23; at that point there is a 50% chance of a light frost earlier than this date. The median hard-frost dates are April 9 and November 1, indicating when a 28 °F freeze is as likely as not. A hard frost matters more because temperatures of 28 °F can damage or kill plants that survive a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 9" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lexington, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Covington, VA — 30 mi; 2 — Gathright Dam, VA — 30 mi; 3 — Staunton, VA — 33 mi; 4 — Lynchburg, VA — 34 mi; 5 — Roanoke, VA — 43 mi.VAWV25 mi · 40 km1. Covington, VA — 30 mi12. Gathright Dam, VA — 30 mi23. Staunton, VA — 33 mi34. Lynchburg, VA — 34 mi45. Roanoke, VA — 43 mi5
  1. Covington, VA 30 mi (48 km)
  2. Gathright Dam, VA 30 mi (49 km)
  3. Staunton, VA 33 mi (54 km)
  4. Lynchburg, VA 34 mi (55 km)
  5. Roanoke, VA 43 mi (70 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.7767, -79.4386.