U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013733 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Lynchburg, VA

NOAA weather station Lynchburg Regional Airport (USW00013733), Virginia · elevation 940 ft (287 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season191 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lynchburg, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 191 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 24Frost season at Lynchburg, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 191 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 3October 12
50% (typical)April 15October 24
90% (likely)March 30November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
191 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29 (5 days later). Frost-free season 198 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lynchburg: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 3, 20% April 27, 30% April 21, 40% April 18, 50% April 15, 60% April 12, 70% April 8, 80% April 4, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 10, 2024 April 7, 2025 April 13, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 3Apr 15Mar 302021: April 232022: April 202023: April 102024: April 72025: April 132026: April 21Fall at Lynchburg: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 12, 20% October 15, 30% October 19, 40% October 22, 50% October 24, 60% October 27, 70% October 30, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 23, 2024 November 17, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 12Oct 24Nov 52021: November 32022: October 192023: October 232024: November 172025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 3
2022April 20October 19
2023April 10October 23
2024April 7November 17
2025April 13October 24
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 191 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Lynchburg frame the period when light frosts are equally likely. April 15 marks the 50% date for spring light frost, and October 24 marks the 50% date for fall light frost; each signals a point where a 32°F frost has a 50-50 chance of occurring.

For a cautious spring plan, the 10%-chance date is May 3, the day on which only a small chance of a later light frost remains, making it the recommended date to set out tender crops. In fall, the cautious date is October 12, when there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, signalling the last day to finish harvesting tender crops. Hard-frost (28°F) dates are April 1 in spring and November 3 in fall, and a hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can freeze plant tissue more thoroughly.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lynchburg, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lexington, VA — 34 mi; 2 — Chatham, VA — 36 mi; 3 — Roanoke, VA — 42 mi; 4 — South Boston, VA — 47 mi; 5 — Covington, VA — 55 mi.WVNC25 mi · 40 km1. Lexington, VA — 34 mi12. Chatham, VA — 36 mi23. Roanoke, VA — 42 mi34. South Boston, VA — 47 mi45. Covington, VA — 55 mi5
  1. Lexington, VA 34 mi (55 km)
  2. Chatham, VA 36 mi (58 km)
  3. Roanoke, VA 42 mi (68 km)
  4. South Boston, VA 47 mi (75 km)
  5. Covington, VA 55 mi (88 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.3208, -79.2067.