U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00448084 · Virginia

Frost Dates near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA

NOAA weather station WFO Sterling (USC00448084), Virginia · elevation 288 ft (88 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Loudoun Valley Estates is the nearest town to the station (1.2 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season195 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Loudoun Valley Estates, VASpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 26Frost season near Loudoun Valley Estates, VASpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 11
50% (typical)April 13October 26
90% (likely)March 29November 7
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
195 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 30 (4 days later). Frost-free season 202 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Loudoun Valley Estates: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 24, 30% April 19, 40% April 15, 50% April 13, 60% April 10, 70% April 6, 80% April 2, 90% March 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 11, 2023 April 9, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 13Mar 292021: April 232022: April 112023: April 92026: April 21Fall near Loudoun Valley Estates: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 16, 30% October 20, 40% October 23, 50% October 26, 60% October 29, 70% November 1, 80% November 3, 90% November 7. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 20, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 13, 2025 November 7.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 26Nov 72021: November 42022: October 202023: November 22024: November 132025: November 7
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 4
2022April 11October 20
2023April 9November 2
2024incomplete recordNovember 13
2025incomplete recordNovember 7
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 1 is the cautious spring date in the Loudoun Valley Estates area; with only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, it marks the point when a gardener can set out tender crops with minimal risk.

The 50 % date is April 13, meaning there is an even chance of a light frost occurring later in spring, while the 50 % hard-frost date is March 31, indicating an even chance of a hard frost. In the fall, the 50 % date is October 26 for light frost and the 50 % hard-frost date is November 4. These median dates give gardeners a clear sense of when the odds of frost shift from unlikely to likely.

October 11 is the cautious fall date, carrying a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier and therefore the point by which tender crops should be finished. A hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because it can damage plants that survive the milder temperature.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Loudoun Valley Estates, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Oak Hill, VA — 3 mi; 2 — near Arlington, VA — 26 mi; 3 — near Bladensburg, MD — 28 mi; 4 — Beltsville, MD — 30 mi; 5 — Front Royal, VA — 38 mi.VAWV25 mi · 40 km1. near Oak Hill, VA — 3 mi12. near Arlington, VA — 26 mi23. near Bladensburg, MD — 28 mi34. Beltsville, MD — 30 mi45. Front Royal, VA — 38 mi5
  1. near Oak Hill, VA 3 mi (4 km)
  2. near Arlington, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  3. near Bladensburg, MD 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Beltsville, MD 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Front Royal, VA 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.9764, -77.4869.