U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00443229 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Front Royal, VA

NOAA weather station Front Royal (USC00443229), Virginia · elevation 930 ft (284 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season196 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Front Royal, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 28Frost season at Front Royal, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 9 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 28
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 14
50% (typical)April 13October 28
90% (likely)March 30November 9
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
196 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (4 days later). Frost-free season 204 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Front Royal: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% April 28, 30% April 21, 40% April 17, 50% April 13, 60% April 9, 70% April 6, 80% April 3, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 24, 2022 May 10, 2023 May 3, 2025 April 10, 2026 April 22.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 13Mar 302021: April 242022: May 102023: May 32025: April 102026: April 22Fall at Front Royal: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 14, 20% October 19, 30% October 23, 40% October 25, 50% October 28, 60% October 31, 70% November 1, 80% November 5, 90% November 9. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 22, 2023 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 14Oct 28Nov 92022: October 222023: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 24incomplete record
2022May 10October 22
2023May 3November 2
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025April 10incomplete record
2026April 22season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 5 is the cautious spring date in Front Royal, carrying a 10 % chance of a light frost later and allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The cautious fall date is October 14, with a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier, giving a clear deadline to finish harvesting tender crops.

The 50% date in spring is April 13; at that point there is a 50 % chance of a light frost later. The 50% date in fall is October 28, when there is a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier. Hard-frost (28 °F) median dates are April 2 in spring and November 7 in fall. A hard frost can damage or kill plants that would survive a light frost, making it the more critical threshold for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 14" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Front Royal, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Woodstock, VA — 15 mi; 2 — Winchester, VA — 20 mi; 3 — near Martinsburg, WV — 36 mi; 4 — near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 38 mi; 5 — near Oak Hill, VA — 39 mi.VAMDWV25 mi · 40 km1. Woodstock, VA — 15 mi12. Winchester, VA — 20 mi23. near Martinsburg, WV — 36 mi34. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 38 mi45. near Oak Hill, VA — 39 mi5
  1. Woodstock, VA 15 mi (25 km)
  2. Winchester, VA 20 mi (32 km)
  3. near Martinsburg, WV 36 mi (58 km)
  4. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA 38 mi (61 km)
  5. near Oak Hill, VA 39 mi (62 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.9039, -78.1822.