U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00445050 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Louisa, VA

NOAA weather station Louisa (USC00445050), Virginia · elevation 420 ft (128 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 13only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season175 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Louisa, VASpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 20Frost season at Louisa, VASpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 13 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 175 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 20
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 13October 7
50% (typical)April 26October 20
90% (likely)April 9November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
175 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 12
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 24 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23 (3 days later). Frost-free season 179 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Louisa: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 13, 20% May 6, 30% May 2, 40% April 29, 50% April 26, 60% April 22, 70% April 19, 80% April 15, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 May 9, 2023 April 26, 2024 April 23, 2025 April 17, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 13Apr 26Apr 92021: May 132022: May 92023: April 262024: April 232025: April 172026: April 21Fall at Louisa: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 7, 20% October 11, 30% October 14, 40% October 17, 50% October 20, 60% October 23, 70% October 25, 80% October 28, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 8, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 16, 2025 October 17.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 7Oct 20Nov 12021: November 32022: October 82023: October 232024: October 162025: October 17
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13November 3
2022May 9October 8
2023April 26October 23
2024April 23October 16
2025April 17October 17
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 13, with a 10% chance of a light frost later, is the cautious spring date for setting out tender crops in Louisa. Using this date lets a gardener schedule planting when the risk of a damaging frost is low. The 50% spring date, April 26, is the point at which a light frost is equally likely to have occurred or not, giving a neutral reference for risk.

In fall, October 7 carries a 10% chance of a light frost earlier and serves as the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% fall date, October 20, marks the even-odds moment for a light frost. Hard-frost median dates are April 12 and October 29; a hard frost at 28°F can injure plants more severely than a light frost at 32°F. The record spans 26 years and the interval between the two 32°F 50% dates is 175 days.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 13" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Louisa, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Orange, VA — 15 mi; 2 — Palmyra, VA — 21 mi; 3 — Charlottesville, VA — 28 mi; 4 — Ashland, VA — 35 mi; 5 — Richmond, VA — 53 mi.VAMD25 mi · 40 km1. near Orange, VA — 15 mi12. Palmyra, VA — 21 mi23. Charlottesville, VA — 28 mi34. Ashland, VA — 35 mi45. Richmond, VA — 53 mi5
  1. near Orange, VA 15 mi (23 km)
  2. Palmyra, VA 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Charlottesville, VA 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Ashland, VA 35 mi (56 km)
  5. Richmond, VA 53 mi (85 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.0422, -78.0061.