U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00446712 · Virginia

Frost Dates near Orange, VA

NOAA weather station Piedmont Research Station (USC00446712), Virginia · elevation 520 ft (159 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Orange is the nearest town to the station (1.1 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season204 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Orange, VASpring: a frost after March 24 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 30Frost season near Orange, VASpring: a frost after March 24 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 204 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 26October 17
50% (typical)April 7October 30
90% (likely)March 24November 13
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
204 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 8 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (2 days later). Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Orange: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 26, 20% April 19, 30% April 14, 40% April 10, 50% April 7, 60% April 4, 70% April 1, 80% March 29, 90% March 24. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2023 April 10, 2024 March 25, 2025 April 10, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 26Apr 7Mar 242021: April 232023: April 102024: March 252025: April 102026: April 21Fall near Orange: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 17, 20% October 22, 30% October 25, 40% October 28, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 8, 90% November 13. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 25.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 17Oct 30Nov 132021: November 52022: October 192023: November 22024: November 212025: October 25
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 5
2022incomplete recordOctober 19
2023April 10November 2
2024March 25November 21
2025April 10October 25
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 17 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in the Orange area, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived.

In this location the median light-frost dates are April 7 in spring and October 30 in fall; these are the points at which there is an even 50 % chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). Gardeners who want to minimize risk would aim to set out tender crops after the cautious spring date of April 26 and would plan to complete harvest before the cautious fall date of October 17. The hard-frost median dates are March 27 and November 8, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than the lighter 32 °F frost because it reaches a lower temperature threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 17" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Orange, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Louisa, VA — 15 mi; 2 — Charlottesville, VA — 26 mi; 3 — Palmyra, VA — 30 mi; 4 — Front Royal, VA — 47 mi; 5 — Dale Enterprise, VA — 47 mi.VAWVMD25 mi · 40 km1. Louisa, VA — 15 mi12. Charlottesville, VA — 26 mi23. Palmyra, VA — 30 mi34. Front Royal, VA — 47 mi45. Dale Enterprise, VA — 47 mi5
  1. Louisa, VA 15 mi (23 km)
  2. Charlottesville, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  3. Palmyra, VA 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Front Royal, VA 47 mi (75 km)
  5. Dale Enterprise, VA 47 mi (75 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.2322, -78.1203.