U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00406328 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Mount Leconte, TN

NOAA weather station Mount Leconte (USC00406328), Tennessee · elevation 6493 ft (1979 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 11only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season132 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Mount Leconte, TNSpring: a frost after May 7 in 9 years out of 10, after May 22 in half of the years, after June 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 132 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 22First frost ~Oct 1Frost season at Mount Leconte, TNSpring: a frost after May 7 in 9 years out of 10, after May 22 in half of the years, after June 11 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 132 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 22First frost ~Oct 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 11September 15
50% (typical)May 22October 1
90% (likely)May 7October 15
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
132 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 18 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 5 (4 days later). Frost-free season 135 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Mount Leconte: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 11, 20% June 2, 30% May 30, 40% May 26, 50% May 22, 60% May 17, 70% May 14, 80% May 11, 90% May 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 June 1, 2022 April 29, 2023 May 6, 2024 May 12, 2025 May 23, 2026 May 15.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 11May 22May 72021: June 12022: April 292023: May 62024: May 122025: May 232026: May 15Fall at Mount Leconte: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 15, 20% September 20, 30% September 24, 40% September 28, 50% October 1, 60% October 4, 70% October 7, 80% October 10, 90% October 15. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 September 24, 2022 September 27, 2023 October 7, 2024 September 8, 2025 October 20.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 152021: September 242022: September 272023: October 72024: September 82025: October 20
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021June 1September 24
2022April 29September 27
2023May 6October 7
2024May 12September 8
2025May 23October 20
2026May 15season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 132 days between the 50% dates in Mount Leconte define the span when light frosts are equally likely to have occurred or not.

The 50% light-frost dates are May 22 in spring and October 1 in fall; they are simply the median points for a 32 °F frost and do not themselves represent a frost event.

For a cautious spring schedule, tender crops should be set out after the June 11 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later light frost; planting as early as May 7 involves a 90 % gamble. In fall, finishing harvests after the September 15 date keeps the risk of an early light frost at 10 %; waiting until October 15 would mean a 90 % gamble. A hard frost at 28 °F—median dates May 9 and October 10—can damage plant tissue that usually survives a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 11" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 15" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Mount Leconte, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Gatlinburg, TN — 6 mi; 2 — Waterville, NC — 21 mi; 3 — Sevierville, TN — 21 mi; 4 — Newport, TN — 26 mi; 5 — Cullowhee, NC — 28 mi.NCSC25 mi · 40 km1. Gatlinburg, TN — 6 mi12. Waterville, NC — 21 mi23. Sevierville, TN — 21 mi34. Newport, TN — 26 mi45. Cullowhee, NC — 28 mi5
  1. Gatlinburg, TN 6 mi (9 km)
  2. Waterville, NC 21 mi (34 km)
  3. Sevierville, TN 21 mi (34 km)
  4. Newport, TN 26 mi (42 km)
  5. Cullowhee, NC 28 mi (45 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.655, -83.4411.