U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00416680 · Texas

Frost Dates for Orange, TX

NOAA weather station Orange 9 N (USC00416680), Texas · elevation 18 ft (6 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostFebruary 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season273 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Orange, TXSpring: a frost after January 29 in 9 years out of 10, after February 28 in half of the years, after March 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 4 in 1 year out of 10, before November 23 in half of the years, before December 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 273 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Feb 28First frost ~Nov 23Frost season at Orange, TXSpring: a frost after January 29 in 9 years out of 10, after February 28 in half of the years, after March 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 4 in 1 year out of 10, before November 23 in half of the years, before December 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 273 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Feb 28First frost ~Nov 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 29November 4
50% (typical)February 28November 23
90% (likely)January 29December 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
273 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 3
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 26 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 24 (1 day later). Frost-free season 270 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Orange: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 29, 20% March 17, 30% March 9, 40% March 4, 50% February 28, 60% February 22, 70% February 15, 80% February 7, 90% January 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 22, 2022 March 14, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 19, 2025 February 24, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 29Feb 28Jan 292021: February 222022: March 142023: March 212024: February 192025: February 242026: March 18Fall at Orange: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 4, 20% November 8, 30% November 14, 40% November 19, 50% November 23, 60% November 29, 70% December 3, 80% December 9, 90% December 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 4, 2022 December 18, 2023 November 2, 2024 December 12, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 4Nov 23Dec 242021: January 42022: December 182023: November 22024: December 122025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 22January 4
2022March 14December 18
2023March 21November 2
2024February 19December 12
2025February 24November 11
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Orange is November 4, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

For a gardener, the 50% date is February 28, marking a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date in spring, while the 50% date is November 23, marking a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date in fall. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is March 29, which carries a 10 % chance of a later frost; planting on January 29 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost.

Hard frosts, defined at 28 °F, are more damaging than light frosts at 32 °F because they can freeze plant tissue that survives the milder temperatures; the hard-frost 50% dates are February 3 in spring and December 12 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 4" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Orange, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Town Bluff Dam, TX — 47 mi; 2 — Leesville, LA — 70 mi; 3 — Lufkin, TX — 92 mi; 4 — Boyce, LA — 101 mi; 5 — Bunkie, LA — 106 mi.LA25 mi · 40 km1. Town Bluff Dam, TX — 47 mi12. Leesville, LA — 70 mi23. Lufkin, TX — 92 mi34. Boyce, LA — 101 mi45. Bunkie, LA — 106 mi5
  1. Town Bluff Dam, TX 47 mi (76 km)
  2. Leesville, LA 70 mi (112 km)
  3. Lufkin, TX 92 mi (148 km)
  4. Boyce, LA 101 mi (163 km)
  5. Bunkie, LA 106 mi (170 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.2264, -93.7394.