U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00419101 · Texas

Frost Dates for Town Bluff Dam, TX

NOAA weather station Town Bluff Dam (USC00419101), Texas · elevation 214 ft (65 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season258 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Town Bluff Dam, TXSpring: a frost after February 13 in 9 years out of 10, after March 9 in half of the years, after April 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 22 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 258 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 9First frost ~Nov 22Frost season at Town Bluff Dam, TXSpring: a frost after February 13 in 9 years out of 10, after March 9 in half of the years, after April 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 22 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 258 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 9First frost ~Nov 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 2November 1
50% (typical)March 9November 22
90% (likely)February 13December 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
258 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 5 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 20 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 258 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Town Bluff Dam: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 2, 20% March 25, 30% March 18, 40% March 13, 50% March 9, 60% March 4, 70% February 28, 80% February 23, 90% February 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 21, 2024 February 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Apr 2Mar 9Feb 132021: April 212022: March 132023: March 212024: February 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Town Bluff Dam: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 1, 20% November 7, 30% November 12, 40% November 17, 50% November 22, 60% November 26, 70% December 1, 80% December 4, 90% December 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 January 2, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 1Nov 22Dec 112021: January 22022: October 192023: November 22024: November 302025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21January 2
2022March 13October 19
2023March 21November 2
2024February 20November 30
2025March 22November 11
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 13 carries a 90 % chance of a frost later that season, a gamble for growers at Town Bluff Dam.

The cautious spring date is April 2, when only a 10 % chance of frost remains later, so most plantings wait until then. In fall the cautious date is November 1, with a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, making it the preferred date to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% date is March 9, meaning a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50% date is November 22, meaning a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The 50% hard-frost dates are February 19 and December 7.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so the hard-frost dates represent a more critical threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Town Bluff Dam, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lufkin, TX — 46 mi; 2 — Orange, TX — 47 mi; 3 — Leesville, LA — 61 mi; 4 — Nacogdoches, TX — 63 mi; 5 — Center, TX — 70 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Lufkin, TX — 46 mi12. Orange, TX — 47 mi23. Leesville, LA — 61 mi34. Nacogdoches, TX — 63 mi45. Center, TX — 70 mi5
  1. Lufkin, TX 46 mi (74 km)
  2. Orange, TX 47 mi (76 km)
  3. Leesville, LA 61 mi (98 km)
  4. Nacogdoches, TX 63 mi (102 km)
  5. Center, TX 70 mi (113 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.7931, -94.1819.