U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00296687 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Pedernal, NM

NOAA weather station Pedernal 9 E (USC00296687), New Mexico · elevation 6150 ft (1875 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 22only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season150 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Pedernal, NMSpring: a frost after April 28 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 26 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 6Frost season at Pedernal, NMSpring: a frost after April 28 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 26 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 22September 26
50% (typical)May 9October 6
90% (likely)April 28October 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
150 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 16

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 10 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 11 (5 days later). Frost-free season 153 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Pedernal: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 22, 20% May 17, 30% May 14, 40% May 12, 50% May 9, 60% May 6, 70% May 4, 80% May 1, 90% April 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 1, 2022 May 25, 2023 April 30, 2024 April 29, 2025 May 20, 2026 May 8.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 22May 9Apr 282021: May 12022: May 252023: April 302024: April 292025: May 202026: May 8Fall at Pedernal: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 26, 20% September 30, 30% October 2, 40% October 5, 50% October 6, 60% October 9, 70% October 12, 80% October 16, 90% October 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 11, 2022 October 24, 2023 October 13, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 26Oct 6Oct 202021: October 112022: October 242023: October 132024: October 312025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 1October 11
2022May 25October 24
2023April 30October 13
2024April 29October 31
2025May 20October 19
2026May 8season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 150 days between the 50% light-frost dates—May 9 and October 6—form the seasonal window for most tender garden work in Pedernal, allowing planting, growth, and harvest before frost becomes a concern.

In spring the cautious date is May 22, when only a 10% chance of a light frost later exists; planting before April 28 carries a 90% chance of a frost and is a gamble. In fall the cautious date is September 26, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier; waiting until October 20 carries a 90% chance of a frost and is risky. The median hard-frost dates are April 30 in spring and October 16 in fall.

A hard frost at 28 °F can kill plants that survive a light 32 °F frost, so it matters more than a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 22" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Pedernal, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Gran Quivira National Monument, NM — 43 mi; 2 — Dilia, NM — 46 mi; 3 — Sumner Lake, NM — 62 mi; 4 — Bingham, NM — 70 mi; 5 — Albuquerque, NM — 71 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Gran Quivira National Monument, NM — 43 mi12. Dilia, NM — 46 mi23. Sumner Lake, NM — 62 mi34. Bingham, NM — 70 mi45. Albuquerque, NM — 71 mi5
  1. Gran Quivira National Monument, NM 43 mi (69 km)
  2. Dilia, NM 46 mi (74 km)
  3. Sumner Lake, NM 62 mi (100 km)
  4. Bingham, NM 70 mi (112 km)
  5. Albuquerque, NM 71 mi (114 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.6153, -105.4739.