U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00297226 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Ragland, NM

NOAA weather station Ragland 3 SSW (USC00297226), New Mexico · elevation 5060 ft (1542 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season177 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Ragland, NMSpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 177 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 21Frost season at Ragland, NMSpring: a frost after April 12 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 21 in half of the years, before November 3 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 177 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 6October 6
50% (typical)April 24October 21
90% (likely)April 12November 3
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
177 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 25 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 22 (1 day later). Frost-free season 179 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Ragland: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 6, 20% May 2, 30% April 29, 40% April 27, 50% April 24, 60% April 21, 70% April 19, 80% April 15, 90% April 12. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 14, 2023 April 23, 2024 April 10, 2025 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 6Apr 24Apr 122021: April 222022: April 142023: April 232024: April 102025: April 21Fall at Ragland: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 11, 30% October 16, 40% October 18, 50% October 21, 60% October 23, 70% October 26, 80% October 29, 90% November 3. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 24, 2023 October 29, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 21Nov 32021: November 42022: October 242023: October 292024: October 312025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 4
2022April 14October 24
2023April 23October 29
2024April 10October 31
2025April 21October 29
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The 177 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Ragland—April 24 and October 21—frame the window in which tender crops can be grown without a likely light frost; the 50% date is April 24 and the 50% date is October 21. The 50% dates themselves are simply the points where a light frost has an even chance of occurring; they do not represent the last spring frost or the first fall frost.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 6, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later than that day, while planting on April 12 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance. In fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 6, with only a 10 % chance a frost has arrived earlier, whereas staying to November 3 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance.

Hard frost at 28 °F—represented by the 50% dates April 14 and October 31—can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Ragland, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Melrose, NM — 25 mi; 2 — Tucumcari, NM — 29 mi; 3 — San Jon, NM — 33 mi; 4 — Sumner Lake, NM — 38 mi; 5 — Portales, NM — 48 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Melrose, NM — 25 mi12. Tucumcari, NM — 29 mi23. San Jon, NM — 33 mi34. Sumner Lake, NM — 38 mi45. Portales, NM — 48 mi5
  1. Melrose, NM 25 mi (41 km)
  2. Tucumcari, NM 29 mi (47 km)
  3. San Jon, NM 33 mi (53 km)
  4. Sumner Lake, NM 38 mi (61 km)
  5. Portales, NM 48 mi (77 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.78, -103.7492.