U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00295617 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Melrose, NM

NOAA weather station Melrose (USC00295617), New Mexico · elevation 4599 ft (1402 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season190 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Melrose, NMSpring: a frost after April 1 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 190 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 26Frost season at Melrose, NMSpring: a frost after April 1 in 9 years out of 10, after April 17 in half of the years, after April 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 7 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 190 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 17First frost ~Oct 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 30October 13
50% (typical)April 17October 26
90% (likely)April 1November 7
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
190 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 18 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26. Frost-free season 191 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Melrose: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 30, 20% April 27, 30% April 22, 40% April 20, 50% April 17, 60% April 14, 70% April 11, 80% April 7, 90% April 1.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 30Apr 17Apr 1Fall at Melrose: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 13, 20% October 18, 30% October 21, 40% October 24, 50% October 26, 60% October 29, 70% November 1, 80% November 4, 90% November 7.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 13Oct 26Nov 7
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on the early spring date of April 1 in Melrose is a gamble, because there is a 90 % chance of a light frost later than this date.

The 50% date in spring is April 17, which carries a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date; the 50% date in fall is October 26, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. For a cautious plan, growers would wait until the April 30 light-frost date, which has only a 10 % chance of frost later, and finish tender crops by the October 13 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a frost earlier.

Hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, so the 50 % hard-frost dates of April 5 and November 4 mark when that higher risk reaches an even chance.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Melrose, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Portales, NM — 23 mi; 2 — Ragland, NM — 25 mi; 3 — Sumner Lake, NM — 45 mi; 4 — San Jon, NM — 50 mi; 5 — near Muleshoe, TX — 53 mi.NMTX25 mi · 40 km1. Portales, NM — 23 mi12. Ragland, NM — 25 mi23. Sumner Lake, NM — 45 mi34. San Jon, NM — 50 mi45. near Muleshoe, TX — 53 mi5
  1. Portales, NM 23 mi (38 km)
  2. Ragland, NM 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Sumner Lake, NM 45 mi (72 km)
  4. San Jon, NM 50 mi (80 km)
  5. near Muleshoe, TX 53 mi (85 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.4278, -103.625.