U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00411017 · Texas

Frost Dates for Brady, TX

NOAA weather station Brady (USC00411017), Texas · elevation 1711 ft (522 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season244 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Brady, TXSpring: a frost after February 25 in 9 years out of 10, after March 14 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 30 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 244 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 14First frost ~Nov 15Frost season at Brady, TXSpring: a frost after February 25 in 9 years out of 10, after March 14 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 30 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 244 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 14First frost ~Nov 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 30
50% (typical)March 14November 15
90% (likely)February 25December 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
244 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 27

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 15 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 14 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 242 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Brady: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 1, 30% March 26, 40% March 19, 50% March 14, 60% March 11, 70% March 6, 80% March 2, 90% February 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 19, 2022 April 8, 2023 February 19, 2024 February 20, 2025 March 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 14Feb 252021: March 192022: April 82023: February 192024: February 202025: March 20Fall at Brady: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 30, 20% November 4, 30% November 8, 40% November 11, 50% November 15, 60% November 19, 70% November 23, 80% November 29, 90% December 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 30Nov 15Dec 42021: November 132022: November 122023: October 312024: November 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 19November 13
2022April 8November 12
2023February 19October 31
2024February 20November 21
2025March 20incomplete record
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 30 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Brady; there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived before that day.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 6, when the chance of a light frost later in the season is also 10 %. The 50 % dates—March 14 for spring and November 15 for fall—represent the point where there is a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date in spring and a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date in fall, giving gardeners a reference for the middle of the frost-risk window.

The hard-frost 50 % dates are March 4 and November 27; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that survive a light frost, so it is a more serious threat. Using the cautious dates reduces the probability of exposing tender crops to frost while the 50 % dates help gauge the central range of risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 30" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Brady, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Brownwood, TX — 47 mi; 2 — Junction, TX — 55 mi; 3 — Ballinger, TX — 55 mi; 4 — Fredericksburg, TX — 68 mi; 5 — San Angelo, TX — 69 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Brownwood, TX — 47 mi12. Junction, TX — 55 mi23. Ballinger, TX — 55 mi34. Fredericksburg, TX — 68 mi45. San Angelo, TX — 69 mi5
  1. Brownwood, TX 47 mi (76 km)
  2. Junction, TX 55 mi (89 km)
  3. Ballinger, TX 55 mi (89 km)
  4. Fredericksburg, TX 68 mi (109 km)
  5. San Angelo, TX 69 mi (112 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.1444, -99.3492.