U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414670 · Texas

Frost Dates for Junction, TX

NOAA weather station Junction 4 SSW (USC00414670), Texas · elevation 1747 ft (533 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season202 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Junction, TXSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 8 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 202 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 8First frost ~Oct 28Frost season at Junction, TXSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 8 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 202 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 8First frost ~Oct 28
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 27October 13
50% (typical)April 8October 28
90% (likely)March 20November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
202 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 11 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29 (1 day later). Frost-free season 198 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Junction: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 27, 20% April 22, 30% April 16, 40% April 11, 50% April 8, 60% April 5, 70% April 2, 80% March 28, 90% March 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 1, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 25, 2024 April 5, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 27Apr 8Mar 202021: April 12022: April 92023: March 252024: April 52025: April 92026: March 18Fall at Junction: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 13, 20% October 18, 30% October 22, 40% October 25, 50% October 28, 60% November 1, 70% November 3, 80% November 6, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 12, 2022 October 26, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 14, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 13Oct 28Nov 112021: November 122022: October 262023: November 12024: November 142025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 1November 12
2022April 9October 26
2023March 25November 1
2024April 5November 14
2025April 9October 30
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 27 is the cautious spring date for light frost (32 °F) in Junction, meaning a gardener can plan to set out tender crops after this day with only a 10 % chance of a later frost. Planting before the earlier date of March 20 carries a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble.

The 50% date is April 8; there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date. For the fall season the 50% date is October 28, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date. The cautious fall date is October 13, when there is only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived, allowing the gardener to finish harvesting tender crops. The hard-frost 50% dates are March 27 and November 5, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Junction, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kerrville, TX — 49 mi; 2 — Fredericksburg, TX — 55 mi; 3 — Brady, TX — 55 mi; 4 — San Angelo, TX — 76 mi; 5 — Boerne, TX — 78 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Kerrville, TX — 49 mi12. Fredericksburg, TX — 55 mi23. Brady, TX — 55 mi34. San Angelo, TX — 76 mi45. Boerne, TX — 78 mi5
  1. Kerrville, TX 49 mi (79 km)
  2. Fredericksburg, TX 55 mi (89 km)
  3. Brady, TX 55 mi (89 km)
  4. San Angelo, TX 76 mi (122 km)
  5. Boerne, TX 78 mi (125 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.4453, -99.8045.