U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00411486 · Texas

Frost Dates for Carrizo Springs, TX

NOAA weather station Carrizo Springs 3 S (USC00411486), Texas · elevation 613 ft (187 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season265 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carrizo Springs, TXSpring: a frost after February 10 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 6 in 1 year out of 10, before November 22 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 265 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 22Frost season at Carrizo Springs, TXSpring: a frost after February 10 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 6 in 1 year out of 10, before November 22 in half of the years, before December 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 265 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 30November 6
50% (typical)March 5November 22
90% (likely)February 10December 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
265 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 20
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 1 (4 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 21 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 264 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carrizo Springs: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 30, 20% March 20, 30% March 14, 40% March 9, 50% March 5, 60% March 1, 70% February 24, 80% February 19, 90% February 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 14, 2023 February 18, 2024 February 14, 2025 February 25, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 30Mar 5Feb 102021: February 212022: March 142023: February 182024: February 142025: February 252026: March 18Fall at Carrizo Springs: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 6, 20% November 12, 30% November 16, 40% November 19, 50% November 22, 60% November 27, 70% December 1, 80% December 5, 90% December 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 12, 2022 November 13, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 31.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 6Nov 22Dec 112021: December 122022: November 132023: November 12024: November 212025: October 31
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21December 12
2022March 14November 13
2023February 18November 1
2024February 14November 21
2025February 25October 31
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

March 30 is the cautious spring date for light frost in Carrizo Springs, meaning there is only a 10 % chance of a frost occurring later; a gardener can plan to set out tender crops after this day with relatively low risk. In contrast, February 10 carries a 90 % chance of a frost later, so planting then would be a gamble.

The 50 % dates represent even odds for frost. The 50 % light-frost date is March 5, and the 50 % hard-frost date is February 20; each marks the point at which a frost is equally likely to have occurred or not. In the fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is November 6, when only a 10 % chance exists that a frost has arrived earlier, while the 50 % light-frost date is November 22 and the 50 % hard-frost date is December 5. A hard frost matters more because temperatures of 28 °F can damage plants more severely than the milder 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carrizo Springs, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Del Rio, TX — 88 mi; 2 — Boerne, TX — 114 mi; 3 — Kerrville, TX — 119 mi; 4 — Fredericksburg, TX — 134 mi; 5 — Junction, TX — 135 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Del Rio, TX — 88 mi12. Boerne, TX — 114 mi23. Kerrville, TX — 119 mi34. Fredericksburg, TX — 134 mi45. Junction, TX — 135 mi5
  1. Del Rio, TX 88 mi (142 km)
  2. Boerne, TX 114 mi (183 km)
  3. Kerrville, TX 119 mi (191 km)
  4. Fredericksburg, TX 134 mi (216 km)
  5. Junction, TX 135 mi (218 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 28.4894, -99.8733.