U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00449181 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Winchester, VA

NOAA weather station Winchester (USC00449181), Virginia · elevation 720 ft (220 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season200 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Winchester, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Winchester, VASpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 14 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 29October 14
50% (typical)April 11October 29
90% (likely)March 30November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
200 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 30 (1 day later). Frost-free season 203 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Winchester: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 29, 20% April 21, 30% April 17, 40% April 14, 50% April 11, 60% April 8, 70% April 5, 80% April 3, 90% March 30.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 29Apr 11Mar 30Fall at Winchester: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 14, 20% October 19, 30% October 23, 40% October 26, 50% October 29, 60% October 31, 70% November 2, 80% November 6, 90% November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 14Oct 29Nov 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 30 in Winchester carries a 90% chance of a frost later that season.

The median light-frost dates are April 11 in spring and October 29 in fall; each marks a fifty-fifty chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). The median hard-frost dates are March 31 and November 9, indicating the point where a 28 °F freeze is equally likely to have happened or not.

A cautious planting schedule therefore uses the April 29 light-frost date, which has only a ten-percent chance of a frost later, and the October 14 date, which has only a ten-percent chance of a frost earlier, to finish harvesting tender crops. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature penetrates deeper tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 14" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Winchester, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Martinsburg, WV — 17 mi; 2 — Front Royal, VA — 20 mi; 3 — Woodstock, VA — 26 mi; 4 — near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 39 mi; 5 — near Oak Hill, VA — 41 mi.VAMDWV25 mi · 40 km1. near Martinsburg, WV — 17 mi12. Front Royal, VA — 20 mi23. Woodstock, VA — 26 mi34. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA — 39 mi45. near Oak Hill, VA — 41 mi5
  1. near Martinsburg, WV 17 mi (28 km)
  2. Front Royal, VA 20 mi (32 km)
  3. Woodstock, VA 26 mi (42 km)
  4. near Loudoun Valley Estates, VA 39 mi (62 km)
  5. near Oak Hill, VA 41 mi (65 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.1881, -78.1517.