U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00253910 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Holdrege, NE

NOAA weather station Holdrege (USC00253910), Nebraska · elevation 2320 ft (707 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season162 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Holdrege, NESpring: a frost after April 17 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 28 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 11Frost season at Holdrege, NESpring: a frost after April 17 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 28 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 162 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 15September 28
50% (typical)May 2October 11
90% (likely)April 17October 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
162 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 21
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 3 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 13 (2 days later). Frost-free season 162 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Holdrege: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 15, 20% May 10, 30% May 7, 40% May 4, 50% May 2, 60% April 30, 70% April 27, 80% April 23, 90% April 17. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 10, 2022 April 25, 2023 May 2, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 20, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 15May 2Apr 172021: May 102022: April 252023: May 22024: April 222025: April 202026: May 2Fall at Holdrege: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 28, 20% October 1, 30% October 5, 40% October 8, 50% October 11, 60% October 13, 70% October 16, 80% October 19, 90% October 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 14, 2022 October 17, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 28Oct 11Oct 222021: October 142022: October 172023: October 72024: October 142025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 10October 14
2022April 25October 17
2023May 2October 7
2024April 22October 14
2025April 20October 19
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of April 17 in Holdrege carries a 90% chance that a light frost will still occur later, making it a gamble for growers. The median light-frost date, the 50% date, is May 2; at that point there is an even chance of a frost occurring later. For a cautious approach, the late spring date of May 15 is used, because only a 10% chance of a later frost remains.

In the autumn, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 28, when only a 10% chance exists that a light frost has arrived earlier. The median autumn light-frost date, the 50% date, is October 11. A hard frost, defined at 28 °F, is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, so the 50% hard-frost dates of April 21 in spring and October 20 in fall are especially relevant to growers.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Holdrege, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Minden, NE — 23 mi; 2 — near Lexington, NE — 24 mi; 3 — Kearney, NE — 27 mi; 4 — Beaver City, NE — 32 mi; 5 — near Franklin, NE — 34 mi.NEKS25 mi · 40 km1. Minden, NE — 23 mi12. near Lexington, NE — 24 mi23. Kearney, NE — 27 mi34. Beaver City, NE — 32 mi45. near Franklin, NE — 34 mi5
  1. Minden, NE 23 mi (37 km)
  2. near Lexington, NE 24 mi (38 km)
  3. Kearney, NE 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Beaver City, NE 32 mi (52 km)
  5. near Franklin, NE 34 mi (54 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.4517, -99.3803.