U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00255565 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Minden, NE

NOAA weather station Minden (USC00255565), Nebraska · elevation 2160 ft (658 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 8only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season168 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Minden, NESpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 168 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 12Frost season at Minden, NESpring: a frost after April 10 in 9 years out of 10, after April 26 in half of the years, after May 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 168 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 26First frost ~Oct 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 8September 29
50% (typical)April 26October 12
90% (likely)April 10October 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
168 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 21

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 29 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 15 (3 days later). Frost-free season 166 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Minden: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 8, 20% May 4, 30% May 1, 40% April 29, 50% April 26, 60% April 23, 70% April 19, 80% April 15, 90% April 10. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 11, 2022 May 3, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 21, 2025 May 3, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 8Apr 26Apr 102021: May 112022: May 32023: May 32024: April 212025: May 32026: May 3Fall at Minden: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 3, 30% October 6, 40% October 9, 50% October 12, 60% October 15, 70% October 17, 80% October 20, 90% October 24. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 14, 2022 October 17, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 14, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 12Oct 242021: October 142022: October 172023: October 72024: October 142025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 11October 14
2022May 3October 17
2023May 3October 7
2024April 21October 14
2025May 3October 19
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 8 is the cautious spring date for light frost, with only a 10% chance of frost later, and it lets a gardener plan to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The 50% date is April 26, indicating an even chance of a light frost later than that day.

September 29 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, so it marks a reasonable time to finish harvesting tender crops. The 50% date is October 12, representing an even chance of a light frost earlier than that day. Hard-frost median dates are April 14 in spring and October 21 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 8" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Minden, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kearney, NE — 15 mi; 2 — Holdrege, NE — 23 mi; 3 — near Franklin, NE — 29 mi; 4 — Hastings, NE — 31 mi; 5 — Ravenna, NE — 36 mi.KS25 mi · 40 km1. Kearney, NE — 15 mi12. Holdrege, NE — 23 mi23. near Franklin, NE — 29 mi34. Hastings, NE — 31 mi45. Ravenna, NE — 36 mi5
  1. Kearney, NE 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Holdrege, NE 23 mi (37 km)
  3. near Franklin, NE 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Hastings, NE 31 mi (50 km)
  5. Ravenna, NE 36 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.5156, -98.9514.