U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00157215 · Kentucky

Frost Dates for Scottsville, KY

NOAA weather station Scottsville (USC00157215), Kentucky · elevation 743 ft (227 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 2only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season194 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Scottsville, KYSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 25Frost season at Scottsville, KYSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 15 in half of the years, after May 2 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 15First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 2October 11
50% (typical)April 15October 25
90% (likely)March 29November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
194 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 2

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 25. Frost-free season 195 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Scottsville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 2, 20% April 26, 30% April 22, 40% April 18, 50% April 15, 60% April 11, 70% April 7, 80% April 3, 90% March 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 25, 2024 April 23, 2025 April 13, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 2Apr 15Mar 292021: April 222022: April 202023: April 252024: April 232025: April 132026: March 29Fall at Scottsville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 16, 30% October 20, 40% October 22, 50% October 25, 60% October 27, 70% October 30, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 3.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 25Nov 52021: November 32022: October 92023: October 312024: October 172025: November 3
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 3
2022April 20October 9
2023April 25October 31
2024April 23October 17
2025April 13November 3
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 194 days between the 50% dates in Scottsville mark the span when a light frost shifts from a fifty-fifty chance of arriving later to the same chance of arriving earlier. The 50% date is April 15 for spring and the 50% date is October 25 for fall; each marks the point at which a 32°F frost has equal odds on either side of that calendar day.

Gardeners can treat the cautious spring date of May 2, which carries only a ten percent chance of a light frost later, as the moment to set out crops, while the early spring date of March 29 carries a ninety percent chance and is a gamble. In the autumn the cautious date of October 11, with a ten percent chance of a light frost earlier, signals when to finish harvesting crops, whereas November 5 bears a ninety percent chance and is a gamble. The hard-frost median dates are April 1 in spring and November 2 in fall; a hard frost at 28°F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32°F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 2" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Scottsville, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Barren River Lake, KY — 12 mi; 2 — near Bowling Green, KY — 19 mi; 3 — Portland, TN — 20 mi; 4 — Carthage, TN — 38 mi; 5 — Springfield, TN — 39 mi.TN25 mi · 40 km1. Barren River Lake, KY — 12 mi12. near Bowling Green, KY — 19 mi23. Portland, TN — 20 mi34. Carthage, TN — 38 mi45. Springfield, TN — 39 mi5
  1. Barren River Lake, KY 12 mi (19 km)
  2. near Bowling Green, KY 19 mi (30 km)
  3. Portland, TN 20 mi (32 km)
  4. Carthage, TN 38 mi (61 km)
  5. Springfield, TN 39 mi (63 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.7461, -86.2258.